Study On Inflow Series Generation Models And Calculation Methods For Reservoir Water Conservancy Operating

The input stream model and reservoir benefit calculate are studied in this paper. The paper consists of three parts: the input inflow model, the research on methods to calculate reservoir benefit, and the study on the making of reservoir operation graph. The major contents and research results are as follows:(1) In the first part, outlines water resources situation in China and points out the necessity of the research. The present situation of mid-long term prediction of runoff methods, random simulation of runoff and calculation of reservoir profiting regulation are introduced. Key case study and solving of the problems is analyzed.(2) States the basic concept of input stream model, determinate model, simulation model and forecast method. Emphases are placed on the mixed stochastic model and one-factor multicycle inference method. Supported by the mixed stochastic model, the database and random simulation model of Dahuofang Reservoir were established. Using the model simulate Dahuofang Reservoir's runoff .The results of statistical analysis, frequency curves and goodness of fit test show that the simulation runoff is in good agreement with the basic data. The one-factor multicycle inference method is applied to forecast annual runoff of Dahuofang Reservoir and the result is practical and feasible. It shows the model can be applied to other similarly watersheds.(3) The third part is about methods on how to calculate reservoir benefit. The affect of different methods on benefit mainly caused by the difference of operation way in flood season, so in this part, the reservoir operation stages in flood season are divided into three group according to reservoir state, to every single stage, the difference between methods is analyzed from different aspects, such as runoff, reservoir task, water level and release, etc to decide to what extent the methods influence the benefit calculation.(4) In the forth part, the making of reservoir operation graph based on serial regulation method is studied. The method takes the characteristics of long-term runoff and reservoir task, as well as reliability index into account to make sure the operation graph reflects the real nature of reservoir. As use demand of runoff forecast, reservoir operation graph considering long-term and medium-short range runoff forecast is studied. The later acts in an inter-active way, by which, the experiences of reservoir administrators can be taken into account.(5) The fifth part is about summary and furore expectation.