Research On Regional Differences Of Energy Consumption Targets For Urban Civil Buildings

The total building energy consumption in China continues to increase.Without intervention,China's energy-saving and emission-reduction targets will be affected.In addition,the energy saving effect of building energy saving technology is slow,and other energy-saving measures are few and lack of direction.China has a vast territory,so its regional differences are great.There are differences in the key points of building energy efficiency.Therefore,it is necessary to study the goal of building energy consumption and corresponding control measures in different regions.This paper applies scenario analysis method to study the regional energy consumption target prediction of urban residential buildings based on regional differences,and puts forward countermeasures aiming to provide a basis for prediction,assessment and control of consumption targets of urban civil buildings.Firstly,related factors of energy consumption of civil buildings are collected through the literature combing method,and final indicators are determined through the constructed index screening process;Secondly,energy consumption equations of urban residential buildings and public buildings in China are constructed by using the modified STIRPAT energy consumption model.Parameters of models are estimated by the method of panel data regression analysis and are verified.Once again,the scenario analysis method is used to preview energy consumption targets of urban civil buildings.The internal relationship between key factors and energy consumption targets is determined according to results of the energy consumption model of civil buildings.According to differences of regional indicators,indicators are divided into benchmark indicators and intervention indicators,and the current trend and the control trend of two types of indicators are set.and the current trend and the control trend of two types of indicators are set up to form the standard scenario and the control situation.Energy consumption targets of urban residential buildings and public buildings are carried out under two scenarios.Finally,total energy consumptions of urban residential buildings and public buildings of 30 provinces and autonomous regions of China(except Tibet)in 2016-2020 are predicted.Research results can provide a basis for the formulation and control of energy consumption targets for civil buildings in each region.Main research findings of the paper are as follows:(1)Since the classical STRIPAT model does not include the climatic factor which is a key factor of the energy consumption.Therefore,the revised STRIPAT model including the climatic factor is used in this paper.(2)Regional civil building energy model estimation and verification results: through panel data model and regression method verification,the fixed utility model is used for regression fitting,and the fitting effect is good.In addition,through the data validation from 2014 to 2015,it is found that the prediction effect of the model is better.For inconsistent predictions of urban residential buildings,inconsistencies in the remaining provinces except Fujian Province can be explained by family size and climate change.Fujian may be due to the impact of three typhoon landings(Lotus,Sudiro,and Rhododendron).The inconsistent forecast result for public buildings can be explained by climate change.(3)Intervention results at a level of 5% intervention: the decline in the energy consumption of public buildings in Hebei,Shanxi,Zhejiang,Shandong,Hubei,and Gansu is greater than the decline in the energy consumption of urban residential buildings.This is due to small changes in family size and big changes in energy prices in these provinces.Contrary to other provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions,it is due to large changes in families size and big changes in energy prices.(4)Results of urban residential buildings and public buildings energy consumptions prediction for each region in 2018-2020 years can provide the basis to the formulation,the evaluation and the control for building energy consumption targets of 30 provinces and autonomous regions of China(except Tibet).Besides,the degree of comprehensive influence of intervention indicators on the energy consumption target determines the priority of the selection of and the direction of urban residential buildings and public buildings of control measures for each region.Research results of the dissertation can provide the basis for the reasonable formulation,assessment and control of energy consumption targets of civil buildings in the district.