Civil Buildings Operating Energy Consumption Influencing Factors Analysis And Scenario Prediction In Beijing

Civil construction is a huge number in Beijing and civil building energy consumptionhas been growing rapidly. With economic develop, the process of urbanization accelerateand people’s standard of living increase in the future,this rapid growth trend willcontinue for some time. Under the impetus of the industrialization, the industry energyefficiency level quickly, industry and energy saving potential is falling, the constructionfield will be more and more important in energy conservation and emissions reduction inthe future. China put forward by202040-45%lower per unit of GDP carbon emissionstargets, building energy efficiency will be the key to accomplish this goal. Identify thekey factors influencing the energy consumption of buildings, can confirm the influencedegree of various factors on building energy consumption, helps the government find thekey points in promoting building energy efficiency and a targeted policies and measures.Paper first describes the research object of this article to building energy consumptionand define, combed in this paper will use of macro statistics split, STIRPAT model,scenario analysis and other related theory and method. Secondly, using the data in theBeijing statistical yearbook1997-2013, based on the macro statistics split method andbuilding energy consumption statistics calculation standard, calculated by divisions,different varieties of energy and other building energy consumption in Beijing. Drivingfactors in building energy consumption as the research object, based on STIRPAT modelof civil building energy consumption is mainly macro drivers for quantitative analysis,using regression, ridge regression method of STIRPAT model to predict reliability of themodel. On this basis, using the scenario analysis, macro drivers for civil building energyconsumption in Beijing area analysis model as the prediction model, through differentdesign for the future development goals, set in the Beijing area civil building energyconsumption of two different scenarios. Using analytical models to predict futuredemand for civil energy consumption in Beijing on predicted. Through the analysis ofprediction results, combining with the above theory and research results of each part, inthe Beijing area is put forward policy Suggestions for the sustainable development ofcivil building energy consumption and to provide evidence for building energyconservation strategy planning.