The Combination Of Fault Tree Analysis And Weapon Effects Simulation In Target Vulnerability Research

Computer simulation is an important method of target vulnerability analysis.It generally includes weapon damage simulation and target functional fault simulation.The former obtains the physical damage of the target component,and the latter obtains the function damage of the target system.The fault tree analysis method is one of the main methods to achieve the target function fault simulation.For a long time,due to the different field of their expertise,weapon damage simulation and fault tree analysis are separated.Therefore,in some damage scenarios,it is generally difficult to directly draw a target vulnerability conclusion considering both the physical damage of target components and the damage of target system functions,thence,they must be combined.Although the fault tree analysis method has been widely used in reliability and fault analysis in history,the uniformity of fault tree data structure and versatility of the softwares are still lacks,and the combination with damage simulation is infrequent.In view of the above shortcomings,this paper mainly completed the following research work.First,it is proposed to describe the data structure of the fault tree with the common data description language XML to achieve the uniformity of its data structure,and the XML data storage format(tags,attributes,etc.)describing the fault tree is designed.Then,the fault tree analysis software which can be used to analyze the fault tree described by XML,is developed by Python language to automate the fault tree analysis.Thirdly,aiming at the vulnerability analysis of military fighter,the key components of the fighter are analyzed and modeled,the damage simulation algorithm of fragmentation warhead is established,and the damage simulation software is developed.Moreover,damage probabilities of the components are calculated by using the random sampling algorithm and they are used by the fault tree analysis software to analyze the functional damage of target.Baesd on these,the combination of fault tree analysis and damage simulation is achieved and the systematic vulnerability is obtained.The XML format proposed in this paper has the characteristics of self-description and uniformity and is expected to be the standard of the data structure of fault tree,and the fault tree analysis software is also universal.In this paper,the fault tree analysis is combined with the simulation of fragmentation damage.For other damage mechanisms(such as shock wave),if the corresponding damage simulation algorithm is established and the damage probabilities of the target components can be calculated,the fault tree analysis software also can be combined,in which there is no technical obstacle.