Study On The Traffic Forecast And Techno-Economic Appraisal Of Panyu Bridge Toll Station Expansion

With the development of economy and growing traffic demands,some highways built at the early stage gradually occurring issues like traffic congestion and service quality declining;the traffic flow of highway is increasing,as an important part of the road infrastructure,however,toll station's traffic capacity is far from matching with the mainline capacity.Along with the promotion of implementing electronic toll collection(ETC)and toll by weight system,toll station extention is extremely urgent.Therefore,to maximize the use of toll stations,it is necessary to make a thorough study on the toll station capacity,traffic volume forecast,technical economic evaluation on toll station extention.First of all,this paper introduces the basic theory of traffic volume forecasting.According to the characteristics of highway reconstruction and expansion project traffic volume forecasting,it mainly expounds "four-stage method" and the train of thought and main model of traffic volume forecasting method based on the transport channel,and compares the strengths and weaknesses of them.Secondly,by means of collecting the traffic volume data of Panyu Bridge toll station in recent years,convert them into the traffic volume data of small passenger car as standard model that according to Panyu Bridge's actual vehicle composition ratio;Based on the characteristics of the project,"four-stage method" combined with transport corridor method to establish a prediction model for detailed analysis and prediction;taking 2018 as the base year of the traffic volume prognosis to get the traffic volume and growth rate data in the next 20 years;also introduces the development of traffic organization and preliminary analyses the cause of the congestion around the project sush as Nanda Main line,Panyu Avenue node,and the cause of its congestion.Thirdly,based on the designed hourly volume and corresponding level of service which are calculated according to the current specifications,standards and traffic volume prediction results,the current lane layout and actual traffic capacity of the Panyu Bridge toll station,and the extreme conditions of daily peak hourly volume during holidays,the number of new lanes needed for the project to be used in 5 years is calculated as the construction scale of this project,then confirms the construction plan by comparing and analyzing the technical feasibility.And then,according to the engineering work of recommendatory construction programme and the standard method of cost estimation promulgated by the government,estimates project total investment and also analyses economic feasibility from two aspects: macroscopic national economic evaluation and microcosmic finance economic evaluation.Finally,this paper comes to a conclusion that the project is not feasible for now,and proposes solutions to the traffic congestion.This study can provide not only important reference for the decision–making of this project,but also the certain application value and beneficial reference for other toll station extension similar research.