Research On Airline Fleet Replacement Decision Based On Dynamic Programming Approach

With the rapid development of the global civil aviation industry,new aircrafts delivered globally has increased year by year,and China has become the second largest civil aviation transportation market in the world after the United States.As the core asset of the airline,the aircraft is expensive,and the introduction and decommissioning of aircraft directly affect the financial situation of the airline.Therefore,in order to maintain good operational conditions,airlines need to make reasonable fleet replacement decision.But in reality,airlines do not have a scientific theoretical system to determine when to introduce and decommission aircraft economically.So,it is very valuable to study the airline fleet replacement decision.Based on the analysis of the status quo of domestic and foreign fleet replacement researches and the existing method theory,a fleet replacement model with dynamic programming method was established.Firstly,the characteristics of passenger traffic data in China were analyzed,and the gray topology method was used to predict the future passenger demand.Then,the cost calculation models of the aircraft in the three stages of introduction,operation and decommissioning were established,and the cost data of each stage was given.On the basis of obtaining the predicted value of future passenger demand,the dynamic programming method was used to establish the theoretical model with the goal of pursuing the minimum cost of airline fleet replacement decision.Finally,using the established theoretical model was used to conduct an example of an airline in China,and drew a specific planning plan which includes the time to introduce and decommission aircraft,the number of aircraft introduced and decommissioned,and the manner in which aircraft are introduced.The results of the example are analyzed to prove the applicability and feasibility of the model.