Comprehensive Evaluation And Prediction Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Anhui Section Of Huaihe Eco-economic Zone

In recent years,the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources has gradually deepened,and water pollution has become increasingly serious.The carrying limit of water resources in critical areas of water resources utilization is facing severe challenges to water resources security.Therefore,the theoretical and methodological research on water resources carrying capacity has certain theoretical significance for enriching the theoretical system of water resources carrying capacity,and has important practical significance for maintaining the sustainable development of social economy and water resources.Based on a large number of literature studies,this paper summarizes the concept,connotation and research methods of water resources carrying capacity,and briefly introduces the general situation of natural environment and social economy in Anhui section of Huaihe Eco-economic Zone.Through frequency statistics and screening of water resources carrying capacity indicators with high frequency used by scholars,the evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity in Anhui section of Huaihe Eco-economic Zone was constructed,and subsystem layers of water resources,social economy and environment were set up,such as resource support,resource consumption,population growth,people's livelihood,economic strength,industrial structure,environmental pollution,environmental governance and other criteria layers.Entropy method was used to calculate the weights of each evaluation index,and nine indexes with larger weights were screened out.Based on the weighted TOPSIS model,the water resources carrying capacity of Huaihe Eco-economic Zone was measured empirically,and the spatial distribution of water resources carrying capacity of eight cities in Anhui section of Huaihe Eco-economic Zone from 2010 to 2017 was visualized by using ArcGIS 10.2 software.The obstacle degree model is used to list the top 10 obstacle indicators for improving regional water resources carrying capacity.Finally,the GM(1,1)prediction model of water resources carrying capacity in Anhui section of Huaihe Eco-economic Zone is constructed,and the water resources carrying capacity in this region is forecasted in the medium and long term.According to the results,the development direction and speed of water resources carrying capacity of each city can be clearly understood.The results show that,on the whole,the comprehensive carrying capacity of water resources in the Huaihe Eco-economic Zone fluctuates slightly,showing an upward trend year by year,and tends to be stable and better,which is greatly influenced by various subsystems.From the point of view of each city,the changing trend of water resources carrying capacity in the eight cities is different,and according to the annual average growth rate of carrying capacity,they are divided into three categories,namely,regions with poor carrying capacity but high growth rate(Bengbu,Fuyang,Huainan).Medium but fast growth of bearing capacity(Huaibei,Suzhou,Chuzhou),good but low growth of bearing capacity(Bozhou,Luan).According to the top 10 barrier factors listed in this paper,the barrier degree values of individual indicators in 8 cities are increasing.Although the GM model predicts that the water resources carrying capacity of 8 cities is increasing year by year from 2018 to 2022,we should pay more attention to the obstacle factors ahead of the ranking in the future,so as to further enhance the water resources carrying capacity.Figure 23 table 14 reference 70...