Research On The Decision-Making Scheme Of Transportation Mode For High-Speed Rail Express Products

With the rapid development of electronic commerce and the improvement of people's consumption level,the volume of the express shows a rapid growth trend,while the diversified needs of customers stimulate the continuous enrichment and improvement of the express products system.As an express product under the reform of railway freight organization,"High-speed rail express" has initially opened up the express delivery market with its advantages of fast speed,wide coverage and strong security,and has achieved a certain market share in competition with other modes of transport.But at present,China's high-speed rail express transport mode is relatively single.After launching the high-speed rail express products such as the Same-day,it did not deeply explore the decision-making plan of transportation mode for the characteristics of various products,resulting in the waste of transportation resources,which is not conducive to the further improvement of the market competitiveness of the high-speed rail express.Therefore,based on the analysis of the technical characteristics of different high-speed rail express transportation modes and the accurate prediction of the share of high-speed rail express products,this paper systematically researches on the decision-making scheme of transportation mode for high-speed rail express products.The thesis mainly includes the following aspects:(1)Summarized and analyzed the development of high-speed rail express at home and abroad.Made a clear development direction of high-speed rail express in China by using SWOT quantitative analysis method based on coordinate method.Defined the concept of high-speed rail express products and summarized the types of freight suitable for high-speed rail express.(2)Analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of five kinds of transportation modes of high-speed rail express,and estimated the loading capacity and cost of different transportation modes.Then analyzed the prerequisites for high-speed rail express delivery such as network capacity,logistics nodes and technical equipment,and designed the delivery operation flow and arrival operation flow of high-speed rail express.(3)Put forward a three-stage method to calculate the share of each high-speed rail express products of OD,first calculated the market share of high-speed rail express using the RBF neural network and Logit model,then predicted the OD volume of high-speed rail express by using principal component analysis and gravity model,and finally compared the characteristics of each high-speed rail express products,this thesis constructed a double-layer Nested Logit model to predict the sharing rate of high-speed rail express products.(4)Expounded the connotation and principle of the decision-making scheme of transportation mode for high-speed rail express products,constructed the decision-making model with the aim of the highest economic benefit,the constraint condition of demand satisfaction,timeliness and carrying capacity,and designed the genetic algorithm to solve the model.(5)This thesis took high-speed rail express between Beijing and Shanghai as an example,selected 5 key cities and predicted the demand of high-speed rail express products of each OD.Then brought it into the model constructed in the previous chapter to generate the decision-making scheme and designed the plan of the special train of high-speed express.In the end,this thesis proved the rationality of the scheme from four aspects:transport efficiency,demand satisfaction,time-limit guarantee and capacity utilization.