A Method Research Of Urban Expansion Simulation Model Based On Super Learning Algorithm

Since the reform and opening up,with the accelerating urbanization speed in China,the contradiction between urban expansion and resource environment has become increasingly prominent.In the future,cities and towns will continue to show an expansion trend.The lack of reasonable control will inevitably bring a series of more serious land resources,waste,ecosystem degradation,environmental degradation and other issues.How to balance the relationship between urban expansion and resource environmental protection and promote sustainable development has aroused widespread concern in society.In March 2018,the establishment of the Ministry of Natural Resources provided an organizational guarantee for the implementation of the policy of “multi-regulation and integration” and the definition of “three generations and three lines”,to achieve overall planning of various departments and to achieve optimal allocation of land space.Therefore,how to carry out urban simulation through scientific and effective methods in the context of multi-regulation is an important means of future space management in China,and also the research focus of this research.In the process of urban development,the changes of different land use types are significantly different.Therefore,the refinement simulation of different land use types in cities is urgently needed in China,and it is also a research hotspot.Based on the UrbanSim urban simulation system and Superlearner algorithm,this study constructs a city expansion simulation model suitable for China.The main research contents and conclusions are follows:(1)Refinement of urban expansion simulation models.Aiming at the problem that the domestic mainstream research method is not refined enough for the urban expansion simulation process,the urban extended boundary demarcation model of the urban land use type refinement simulation is constructed.According to different land use type expansion laws,it is simulated separately.The simulation results of different land use types are obtained to comprehensively determine the urban expansion simulation results.(2)The UrbanSim model system is Chinese.UrbanSim urban simulation system originated in the United States.Due to the different development rules of urbanization in China and the United States,it is necessary to carry out reasonable Chinese technical transformation of model framework and parameters according to the actual situation in China,and form a city expansion simulation model suitable for China..(3)Case application.The reconstructed urban expansion simulation model was applied to Anhua County,Hunan Province to test the feasibility and practicability of the model.The model takes the total population of Anhua County as the total constraint,and predicts and analyzes the main land types of the city,and obtains the urban expansion simulation results.(4)Conclusion.This study successfully transformed the UrbanSim urban simulation system into China,and combined it with Superlearner,and applied the case simulation results in Anhua County,Hunan Province.Combined with the policy analysis,through the comparison with the overall planning of Anhua County,the similarities and differences between the two are analyzed.The application suggestions of the UrbanSim urban simulation system after the Chineseization are given.