Research On Bidding Risk Evaluation Of EPC Project Based On BP Neural Network

The EPC general contracting mode is a new type of hair contracting model widely used in the domestic construction field.The promotion of EPC general contracting is conducive to improving the feasibility study and preliminary design depth of the project.Through the overall optimization of project design,design,procurement and construction are realized.The high degree of integration of the links will ultimately realize the functional value of the project on the basis of satisfying the basic interests of the contractor.As the initial work of project implementation,construction project bidding has become a key part of the project's success.In view of the huge difference between the actual depth of the project before the bidding in the EPC mode and the ordinary bidding,coupled with the particularity of the selection of the EPC project,the risk in the bidding stage far exceeds the traditional mode bidding.Therefore,the risk management of the EPC project bidding work is very important,and the risk evaluation is the key link of risk management,and the result determines the success or failure of the EPC project bidding work.At present,the research on bidding risk evaluation of EPC projects has not yet formed a perfect system.In the actual EPC project bidding process,there is no effective risk assessment experience,and the contractors often fail to respond in time due to risk factors in the bidding process.And bear the loss.Therefore,actively promoting the EPC project bidding risk evaluation research can not only deepen the reform of the implementation mode of China's engineering construction projects,but also lay a foundation for the smooth development of bidding work and the orderly implementation of EPC projects.This paper first introduces the EPC project bidding and risk evaluation related theories,the characteristics of the EPC project bidding,the differences between the EPC project bidding and the traditional project bidding,the risk assessment process and the risk assessment method,etc.,and the EPC.The establishment principle of project bidding risk evaluation,the basis and ideas for the construction of risk evaluation index system,establish the EPC project bidding risk evaluation index system according to the risk evaluation establishment principle and construction ideas,and dimension by experts according to the characteristics of each risk factor;Construct a BP neural network model that can meet the characteristics of various risk factors.By selecting 14 similar EPC projects and extracting the risk factors in the bidding stage,the relevant experts involved in the bidding of these projects will quantify the risk factors.The data is substituted into the BP neural network for learning and training,and then the reliability of the BP neural network is verified by another four sets of data.Finally,the relevant data of the bidding of the XiangSongXiAn project is input into the verified BP neural network.Simulation,evaluation results show:XiangSongXiAn Project Recruitment The risk level is lower,and the risk factors that have a greater impact on the project are the risk of selecting the risk during the issuance phase,the unclear risk of the issuer,the risk of determining the maximum bid limit,and the risk of imperfect contract terms.Corresponding rationalization suggestions.