Application Of Hedging Rules In Water Receiving Area

There is a problem of uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources in China.In order to solve the contradiction between water supply and demand,many cities or regions introducing water transferred from wet area.Transferred water has alleviated shortage of water resources in these cities or regions.However,due to runoff uncertainty,there is a possibility that transferred water and local water are both dry,in this case,the water receiving area would suffer severe water shortage in later period.As the influence of serious water shortage is hugely destructive,it is meaningful to research and develop reasonable water supply plan to reduce the risk of serious water shortages in later period and reduce the adverse effects caused by water shortage.Based on applying of Hedging Rules to reduce loss of water shortage,the following work has been done.First,the water requirement of Tianjin in 2020 and 2030 has been predicted,and the the water supply network in Tianjin and the water supply capacity of local water in various regions has been studied.According to the relevant regulations of Water Diversion Project from Luanhe River to Tianjin City and Central Line Project of South-to-North Water Diversion to Tianjin,the water supply capacity of two kind of transferred water in different cases has been studied.The water requirement and the water supply capacity in various areas of Tianjin were studied,as well as the areas where water shortage may occur in Tianjin and the possible water shortage were studied.Classification and summary of the current research on Hedging Rules has been down,the water shortage events are divided into two categories according to the degree of water shortage.Based on the priority of supplying water of each water users,the water supply is limited by turn when water supply capacity is small.And a ten-day-scale scheduling simulation model with water supply capacity as judgment index is used to determine how much water to supply and how to allocate among the water users.Based on the concept of water consumption per 10,000 yuan of output value,the index of loss reduction rate is proposed.The objective function of the Hedging Rules has been improved,and two scenarios of Tianjin and Luanhe River are both dry are set up,and the result of supplying water according to Standard Operation Policy and conventional Hedging Rules with objective function of minimum squares of water shortage rate in each period are set as comparisons.The result indicates that after improving the objective function,loss of water shortage can be reduced and high efficiency of water supply during dry period can be guaranteed.