Study On Risk Assessment Of Comprehensive Development Project In W City Based On PPP Model

With the development of Public-Private Partnership in China,a large number of urban comprehensive development projects with PPP model have increased recently.However,there is an increase in risk management during urban comprehensive development,needing to analyze risk management and to come up with several solutions in academic point of view.This dissertation will use risk identification,analytic hierarchy process,fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to evaluate risk management in urban comprehensive development with PPP model.Firstly,this dissertation analyzed the characteristics and the risk of PPP model,concluding the characteristics of risk management in urban comprehensive development projects.This dissertation analyzed recent risk management evaluation models.Compared with several models,this dissertation selected analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to evaluate risk management in this example.Based on risk evaluation indicator system and 29 evaluation indicators in PPP models,this dissertation calculated and analyzed the relationship between the criterion layer and indicator layer.Secondly,this dissertation used fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to analyze W City High-speed Railway New County Project.This dissertation calculated and evaluated 7 risk factors independently or corporately influence this example's risk rating,providing academic evidences for risk management of this example.Thirdly,this dissertation provided several solutions for political risk,economic risk,contract risk,construction risk,operation risk,management risk of SPV,and force majeure risk,providing evidences for the development of SPV.Finally,this dissertation drew some conclusions as follows.(1)This dissertation established the risk evaluation indicator system and 29 evaluation indicators in PPP models,calculating and analyzing the relationship among each indicator.The better the indicator system,the better the relationship,which chould improve the evaluation in further projects.(2)This dissertation used fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to analyze W City High-speed Railway New County Project.Based on the whole W City High-speed Railway New County Project and several risk indicators,this project is a First-rating project.Shareholders should focus on each risk indicator,using appropriate solutions to decrease the percentage of each risk in time.(3)This dissertation provided 7 solutions to tackle related risks,which chould help the SPV to come up with rules of related risks.