Research On Prediction Of Hierarchical Water Demand In Households In Hebei Province

Based on the statistical data of urban residents’water consumption in Hebei Province and the field survey data of water use behavior,this paper analyzes the evolution characteristics of domestic water use and its influencing factors in 11 cities in Hebei Province,and puts forward the theory and forecasting method of hierarchical life water demand,and predicts Hebei Province.Urban residents have a hierarchical demand for water.The main results and conclusions are as follows:(1)Based on the data of domestic water consumption of urban residents in Hebei Province,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of water consumption are analyzed,and the data of population economy,climate and meteorology,water resources conditions and water saving management are collected.The influence of different factors on the index of urban residents’domestic water consumption is analyzed,and the main influencing factors on urban residents’domestic water consumption are identified.(2)Put forward the theory of hierarchical life water demand,and define the concept and connotation of rigid water demand,elastic water demand and luxury water demand.Starting from the influencing factors of domestic water for residents,the water needs for drinking,water for cleaning,water for cleaning,water for washing,water for bathing,water for flushing,water for cooking,water required for cooking,and total water demand were constructed.Hierarchical water demand forecasting model.On this basis,a hierarchical water demand forecasting method is proposed.(3)Compared with the actual water quota and water use structure,the constructed water demand prediction model can better simulate the total domestic water consumption and its sub-item values of urban residents in Hebei Province,and the model has strong applicability.It is predicted that the total domestic water consumption of urban residents in the next 2025year will be 757.6 thousands m~3 in Shijiazhuang,571.4 thousands m~3 in Tangshan,130.4thousands m~3 in Zhangjiakou,266.6 thousands m~3 in Handan,193.3 thousands m~3 in Qinhuangdao and 124,500 m~3 in Langfan.Hengshui is 85,200 m~3,Baoding is 486,700 m~3,Cangzhou is 89,700 m~3,Xingtai is 114,700 m~3,and Chengde is 81,500 m~3.The total amount of domestic water used by residents in Shijiazhuang is still the highest,and the total amount of domestic water used in developed cities has increased even more.The current year simulation analysis results show that the total daily domestic water consumption of the city is570,100 m~3,of which 272,500 m~3 is rigid water,196,100 m~3 is flexible water,and 91,600 m~3is luxury water.When the GDP of Shijiazhuang City grows at a rate of 6%and the temperature rises by 1°C,it is estimated that by 2025,the rigid water demand will reach278,600 m~3,the elastic water demand is expected to reach 329,600 m~3,and the luxury water demand is expected to reach 170,400 m~3.Among them,the rigid water demand is less affected by the economy and temperature,and the elastic water demand and luxury water demand are greatly affected by the economy and temperature.