Risk Assessment Of Power Grid Operation Models Based On Dynamic Trip Probability Of Line

As the number of grid components increases,the risk of power outages due to component failures is also increasing.As one of the important means to control the risk of power grids,risk assessment of power grid operation is increasingly valued by relevant scholars.In the components of the power grid,the transmission line occupies a large proportion.As a component exposed to the external environment,the transmission line is affected by changes in the external environment and changes in operation mode.How to reflect both in the operational risk assessment is one of the important directions for the development of the risk assessment theory of power grid operation.To solve this problem,this paper proposes a method to find the hidden danger boundary of the transmission line trip,and based on this,establishes the dynamic tripping probability outage model of the transmission line.The change of the external environment and the change of the operating state are introduced into the operational risk assessment outage model.The specific research contents are as follows:(1)Based on the basic theory of probability theory,the decoupling model of the transmission line trip problem under simplified conditions is derived.The calculation formula of the transmission line failure frequency under non-extreme weather conditions is given in engineering practice.(2)The concept of hidden danger boundary is put forward,and based on this,the dynamic tripping probability outage model of the transmission line is established.The applicable scope and application conditions of the model are expounded,and the mathematical expectation,variance and confidence interval are given.(3)The hidden boundary of tree line tripping based on short-term environmental factors is obtained.The basic idea of establishing hidden danger boundaries based on physical connections is given.The dynamic failure frequency of lightning trip is obtained by using the support vector machine algorithm.The relationship between the optimal hyperplane and the hidden boundary in the support vector machine algorithm is pointed out.The calculation formula of the dynamic tripping probability outage model of the transmission line based on the above typical trip faults is given.(4)According to the dynamic tripping probability outage model of the transmission line coupled with the typical trip faults in(3),the risk assessment test is carried out.The simulation analysis shows that:Risk assessment of power grid operation based on dynamic trip probability of transmission line.The model application environment is flexible and diverse.It can provide more scientific and accurate short-term risk indicators for the dispatching department.