Research On Business Decision In Medium To Long-term Electricity Trading Of Electricity Retailers

The electricity sales market has been developed for three years since the new round of power system reform.But the development of electricity retailers is mixed,and there are still many problems and challenges in the operation,such as the design of business model and profit model doesn't compatible with the market development and suffer enormous losses because of the wrong decision on electricity purchase and sale,etc.The electricity retailers should pay attention to the medium and long-term trading business decision-making and accumulating experience conduce to better respond to market changes and lay the foundation for the long-term development of electricity retailers,in the situations the future power market environment is more complicated.Therefore,this paper studies the electric power medium to long-term trading business decisions of the electricity retailers,including the construction of business models,the design of profit models,and the decision-making support for purchasing and selling electricity.Based on the theory of business decision-making,this paper summarizes the relevant literatures at home and abroad,and constructs an analysis framework for the long-term to medium-term business decision-making of electricity retailers,including the development environment,formation mode,business mode,profit mode and power purchase and sale decision-making.Based on PEST theory,this paper analyzes the development environment of electricity retailers.First,it analyzes the requirements for the establishment of power distribution companies and independent power distribution companies respectively from a policy perspective.Then it puts forward the development strategies of power distribution companies of different investment entities based on SWOT analysis model.This paper analyzes the business model of the electricity retailers,and based on the demand life cycle theory,constructs the business model of the electricity retailers to adapt to the development of the electricity market and the needs of users.Combined with the operation mode of the electricity retailers,from the perspective of management accounting,through analyzing the cost and profit of the electricity retailers,this paper designs the profit mode of the electricity retailers in the medium to long-term electricity trading.In the early stage of the development of the electricity market,the main profit model of electricity retailers is the profit model of price difference in electricity purchasing and selling.Referring to the cost-volume-profit theory,this paper first analyzes the cost behavior of power companies,takes the cost related to the volume of electricity purchased as the cost factor in building the decision-making model for power purchase and sales,and designs a medium-term and long-term transaction cost model for power companies that sell electricity,taking into account the deviation assessment mechanism.Based on the current medium-term and long-term trading rules of electric power,a profit model for electric power companies is established,and a decision-making model for medium-term and long-term trading of electric power for electric power companies is designed by taking the CVaR model as a risk measurement model.Through an example,the decision-making thinking and results are given.Under the fixed price difference electricity sales contract mode,the electricity purchase allocation decision is first made.Under certain constraint conditions,with profit maximization as the goal,the application price of centralized bidding is solved through immune algorithm.Combined with the analysis of the influence of risk preference on electricity purchase decision of electricity retailers,the method reference is provided for the electricity purchasing and selling decision of electricity retailers in the medium to long-term transactions.This paper studies the medium to long-term electricity trading business decision-making and constructs a framework for analysis of medium to long-term electricity trading decisions of electricity retailers based on the development stage of the electricity market.And the paper has designed a relatively complete decision-making system.Under the research of this framework,it designed a relatively complete decision-making system.The research in this paper provides a theoretical method to analyzes the market environment,provides a theoretical method and builds a profit model.As the same time this paper provides decision ideas and implementation approaches of buying and selling electricity in the medium to long-term electricity trading market of electricity for electricity retailers.It is conducive to enhance competitiveness,expand profitability,and achieve sustainable development of electricity retailers.