Analysis Of Reliability Of Time For Passengers Accessing To The Airport

With the improvement of people's living standards,air travel has become one of the important ways for travelers.In order to be able to assess the impact of time uncertainty,this paper summarizes the influencing factors of time reliability,and divides reliability of time into the early arrival time indicator and the late arrival time indicator,and use the corresponding value of time to quantify the impact of the reliability of time indicator.First,this paper proposed a method to estimate the value of travel time based on meta-analysis methods.The procedure included literature collection and screening,data procession,heterogeneity test,meta-regression and analysis.The meta-regression results showed that the survey sites,traffic modes,and respondents produced 13%,26%,and 15% of heterogeneity.The fixed-effect model,the random-effect model and the feasible generalized least squares model were established.After test analysis,the feasible generalized least squares model was chose.It lays the foundation for the analysis of the influencing factors below,and provides reasonable basis and program guidance for the travel decision of passengers.Second,the air passengers' time reliability index is quantitative analyzed.A hybrid Logit model for time of schedule delay early and time of schedule delay late were established,and used the Akaike information criterion and the relative likelihood model for test.The results show that the model calculation results are best when the schedule delay early time coefficient and the schedule delay late time coefficient obey the normal distribution and the lognormal distribution respectively.According to the model calculation,value of time of air passengers based on the individual's willingness to pay is calculated,provide reasonable basis and program guidance for travel decisions of travellers.Finally,the social value of air passengers' time reliability index are quantitativly estimated.Consider the differences in the contribution of different income groups to social benefits.According to the national income tax rate in 2017.The calculation method of the social value of time of air passengers accessing to the airport is proposed.The research results can provide theoretical basis and technical support for air passengers and traffic project investment.The results show that the time value of air passengers accessing to airport is higher than that of commuters.In addition,the social value of schedule delay early/late is higher than that of schedule delay early/late based on individuals' willingness to pay,as the contribution of high-income groups to the social utility of travel time value is more significant.