| With the progress of our society and the development of economy,many cities are facing the rapid growth of car ownership and urban traffic congestion is becoming more and more serious.Giving priority to the development of urban public transport is the main way to solve the urban traffic problem.at the same time,many cities are actively developing public transport with buses as the main mode of transport(hereinafter referred to as public transport,in order to distinguish it from rail transit).It is also vigorously developing rail public transport.there is both complementarity and competition between the public transport system and the rail transit system.There is also this relationship between Guangzhou’s public transport system and rail transit system,and in recent years,the attractiveness of public transport has declined year by year,and the efficiency of public transport enterprises has also been greatly affected.In order to make the coordinated development of the public transport system and rail transit,it is necessary to analyze the crux of the decline in the attractiveness of the public transport system,and take effective measures to improve the attractiveness of the public transport system.Guangzhou,as the core city of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area,the development of its urban agglomeration has begun to take shape.the analysis of the operation characteristics of public transport from the perspective of urban agglomeration will help to analyze the existing problems from the overall point of view.This paper chooses two aspects of bus operation speed specialty and reliability to carry out research,in order to find out the relationship between bus operation speed and urban agglomeration,and uses reliability evaluation method to establish the evaluation method of bus operation quality.Firstly,the paper analyzes the relevant research results,summarizes the evaluationmethods for the operation of the public transport system,determines the speed of public transport as the research object,and analyzes the research direction of the development characteristics of public transport in urban agglomerations.According to the characteristics of Guangzhou urban agglomeration and public transport development,the investigation scheme is worked out in detail,and the data collection and investigation are carried out on the premise of satisfying the sample size.With the help of big data analysis software OriginPro2017,the regional bus speed data obtained from the survey are analyzed,fitted and tested.the results show that the bus speed distribution obeys the lognormal distribution.Then the characteristics of Guangzhou urban regional layout are compared with the speed characteristics of public transport.Based on the spatial analysis of ArcGis,it is found that the speed characteristics of public transport have a strong correlation with the spatial layout of urban agglomeration and the gradient of urban development.The relationship model between bus travel speed and urban gradient is established by multiple linear regression.In order to quantify the influence of speed profile on bus operation quality,based on reliability theory,the speed reliability is divided,and a multi-level bus operation reliability evaluation model based on station,line and region is constructed.Finally,the traffic simulation software VISSIM is used to simulate and test the speed models of six bus stations,such as Ring Line 2 Guanggong Station,Central West Road Station,Guangmei living area Station,broad apartment station,vast living area station and vast station,and the speed models of six bus stations and their sections along the line are simulated and tested.The simulation results show that the evaluation method is feasible. |
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