Research On Forecasting Method Of Intercity Distribution In Urban Agglomeration

Urban agglomeration is a new mode of China’s urbanization based on big cities to drive around the coordinated development of small and medium-sized cities and towns,has greatly promote the development of our country economy the high quality and make more people enjoy a higher quality life.In order to ensure the promotion of urban agglomerations,the efficient and rapid passenger transport planning between cities has become the main topic of transport planning,among which the traffic distribution prediction is the most worthy direction of traffic planning research.The urban agglomeration traffic distribution forecasting is different with the traditional city study,such as the formation of the urban agglomeration in the internal law of development is not the same with a single city and the attracting factors between cities is not entirely consistent.All of this,result to the change of the characteristics of the resulting traffic distribution,and the applicability of the traditional traffic distribution forecasting method is greatly reduced.This thesis will start with the general development law and basic characteristics of urban agglomeration,combined with the actual situation of the Guangzhou-DongguanShenzhen urban agglomeration,analyze and sort out the main factors affecting the traffic distribution of urban agglomeration,and then optimize the existing prediction model.The main research contents are as follows:(1)Based on the research of domestic and foreign experts and scholars,I summarize the general law of the formation and development of urban agglomeration.Then,analyzed the actual development path of the Guangzhou-Dongguan-Shenzhen urban agglomeration,and summarized the structural characteristics of its space,economy,population,employment,transportation and other fields to lay a foundation for the subsequent study of its internal relations.(2)The influence of the structural characteristics of the Guangzhou-DongguanShenzhen urban agglomeration on the traffic distribution is analyzed from three aspects of spatial distribution,economic industry and industry connection,and then summarized the general rules in it.(3)Traffic distribution model and optimization,summarized the advantages and disadvantages of the existing classical traffic distribution model,analyzes its applicability to the problem of urban traffic distribution,and then according to the previous chapter sums up the rule of the model is optimized,finally validate the precision of the optimization model,analyzes its advantages and disadvantages for urban traffic distribution prediction.