Study On Decision-making Behavior Of Market Participants In The Electric Selling Market

The introduction of competition in the link of electricity sales and the formation of the market pattern of multiple market participants' competition on power-sold side can promote the formation of reasonable price mechanism and the establishment of a reasonable market competition mechanism,which is of great significance for the establishment of a perfect electricity market trading mechanism.Opening the market for electricity sale and introducing competition to form a new market pattern of "multi buyer and multi seller" is the development direction of China's reform of the electricity market.Based on the future development direction of the electricity market,this thesis studies the decision-making behavior and influencing factors of the participants of the electricity market,so as to achieve the optimal selection strategy of the participants.Firstly,the characteristics and application scopes of non-cooperative game and evolutionary game are expounded,and the differences between the two kinds of games are summed up.Besides,the market structure and operation mode of the electric selling market are analyzed,and the application of evolutionary game and non-cooperative game to study the decision-making behavior of market participants in the electric selling market is analyzed.Then,based on the analysis of the factors that affect the users' choices of retailers in the electric selling market,the evolutionary game theory is applied to analyze the process of user selection.Based on the analysis of the sales contract,the company brand and the power supply service of the retailers,the users' AHP utility model is established considering characteristics of users,information release patterns of retailers,interruptible load and users' distributed renewable energy.Then dynamic evolutionary model of different types of users choosing retailers is established and the algorithm of the model is proposed.Numerical simulation is used to show the effectiveness of proposed model and algorithm.By analyzing the influence of different characteristics of different types of users,different information release patterns of retailers interruptible load and users' distributed renewable energy on user selection results,references for the retailers to formulate competitive strategies are provided.Finally,a two-layer game model between retailers and power consumers is built to simulate the game behavior between retailers and users in the electric selling market.The upper level model is a non-cooperative game between the retailers,and the lower level model is an evolutionary game of the power consumers.In the foundation of the users' selection model and analysis of the retailers' electricity selling strategy,considering different development goals of the retailers and the risk factors of the price fluctuation in the centralized trading market faced by the retailers,the two-layer game model between retailers and power consumers is constructed and the algorithm for solving the game equilibrium is given.This thesis verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the constructed model and algorithm through example analyses,and the impact of the risk concerns and development goals of the retailers on the market equilibrium is analyzed.