Research On Urban Public Transit Demand Forecast And Public Transit Network Planning Of Linear Cities

In recent years,traffic conjestion has become the common problems for most cities.Developing public transportation is one of the most effective countermeasures for mitigating traffic conjestion.The expanding and developing patterns of linear cities are different from other types of cities due to the confine of natural conditions,as well as the layout and development of public transportation systems.Taking Fuxin city as the case study,this research studied the public transportation travel demand prediction and route planning methods for linear cities,and proposed the planning scheme of public transportation system applicable to linear cities.Firstly,the morphological characteristics and landuse features of linear cities were analyzed.The traffic characteristics of linear cities were summarized from aspects of urban road network layout,population distribution and slow traffic system,etc.,so as to provide the basis for transit network planning.The data collection and analysis for Fuxin city were then conducted from road traffic and residents travel,and the problems of current road network were analyzed based on indexes of road area,network structure and throughways.After defining traffic zones,resident trip survey was carried out by the home interview survey method,and resident trips,travel time and trip distribution were obtained.The traffic volume for key road sections were investigated through a video-recording method and the level of service for the road network was evaluated.The transit trips and travel characteristics were investigated and analyzed by the questionnaire survey method combined with inbus survey method.Besides,the data for bus lines,station and parking facilities and bus junctions were also collected and analyzed as the basis for traffic demand forecast.Then,four-step method was used for prediction the traffc demand of linear cities based on the collected data.The population scale,landuse,vehicle ownership and the employment position were predicted busing regression methods combined with the objective of the urban comprehensive planning.After that,the m ultivariate nonlinear models for trip generation and trip attraction were calibrated and the resident trips for the planning short-term and long-term years were obtained.The spatial distribution of resident trips for target years was predicted by the dual-constrained gravity model and trip mode for target years was splited through a Logit model.The transit trips and the corresponding spatial distribution for planning short-term and long-term years were finally obtained which is the basis for the following planning of public transportation.Fianlly,the planning scheme for the bus line layout,the scale and position for bus stops and parking lots,arrangement of buses,control center for buses for the planning short-term target year was proposed,together with a comprehensive intergrated transit system with bus and light rail lines for the planning long-term year.The results of this research can provide reference and insights for transit development and planning for linear cities.