Research On The Construction And Evaluation For China's Energy Dependence Index

Energy is the support of the national economy and an important material basis for human survival.China's economic and social development cannot do without energy,which will inevitably bring about rapid growth of energy demand and aggravate environmental degradation.At present,the economic development leads to the increasing demand for energy and the non-renewable contradiction of fossil energy,which makes the energy problem more serious.But how dependent is China on energy? Which energy sources are more dependent? Which areas are more energy dependent? There is no scientific indicator to measure it.Based on this,this paper tries to build energy dependence index,and on the basis of establishing the energy dependence index evaluation system,the integration of the three methods to evaluate China's coal,oil,natural gas and clean energy dependence in nearly 17 years,analyzed the economic development,energy security,residents living and ecological environment from four aspects of different energy dependence.Firstly,the status quo of energy resources is analyzed,and the economic and social development is divided into four subsystems: economic development,energy security,residents' life and ecological environment.Secondly,based on the four aspects of economy,energy,residents and environment and the principles of index system construction,an energy dependence index evaluation index system including 17 indicators was constructed,and the reasons for index selection and index calculation methods were explained in detail.The comprehensive evaluation method EM-GRA-TOPSIS was proposed based on the previous evaluation methods for the index system.First,the objective weight of each index was calculated by using the entropy method,and then the grey closeness of the energy dependence index was calculated by using the ranking method of grey correlation approximation to the ideal solution,that is,the final energy dependence value.Finally,based on the statistical yearbook data from 2000 to 2016,the dependence degree of coal,oil,natural gas and clean energy in China was calculated and evaluated according to the evaluation steps,and the change of dependence degree of different energy sources in the four aspects was analyzed from the aspects of economic development,energy security,residents' life and ecological environment combined with specific indicators.The research results show that from 2000 to 2016,China's four types of energy dependence fluctuated between 0.25 and 0.65,and the four types of energy dependence fluctuated greatly,among which the renewable energy had the highest fluctuation level and continued to rise.The fluctuation level of natural gas and coal is high,and the dependence of natural gas increases year by year,while the dependence of coal continues to decrease.The fluctuation level of petroleum is the smallest,which is consistent with the development trend and emphasis of energy in China.The annual average ranking of energy dependence in the past 17 years is as follows: coal >natural gas > oil >clean energy.The annual average of coal and natural gas dependence is higher than the overall energy dependence,which indicates that overall,coal dependence is still in a high position.In a short time,coal is still the dominant energy in China.The development of natural gas is rapid,and many supportive policies of the state promote the development of natural gas fundamentally.The evaluation results of different energy sources show that the coordinated development of economic development and ecological environment has a significant impact on the increase of coal dependence.The main factors affecting oil dependence are energy security and ecological environment,which are embodied in resource endowment,external dependence and carbon intensity.The main factors that affect the level of natural gas dependence are economic development,residents' life and ecological environment,which are reflected in energy consumption level,external dependence and residents' living energy consumption.The main factors that affect the level of renewable energy dependence are economic development and energy security,which are reflected in energy consumption level,supply-demand ratio and technological progress.Innovation point of this article is: from the economy,energy security,residents living and ecological environment from four aspects to build the evaluation index system of energy dependence index,comprehensively analyses the degree of our country's energy dependence and dependence of different areas,for our country in accordance with different energy characteristics of energy development goals laid the important theoretical basis.