Study On Risk Management For Coal Handling System Subcontracting Project Of M Power Plant

At present,the domestic thermal power market is becoming saturated,but in overseas markets,especially in Southeast Asia,booming development is still predictable.The M power plant which studied in this thesis is located in such markets.At the same time,the T group is also urgent to become a system contractor,not merely an equipment manufacturer.It is the way to achieve development and breakthrough under such meager profit situation.Obviously,successful completion of this project is significant for T group.However,due to its complex subcontract structures and stringent technical requirements,the M project brings more challenges than opportunities for T group.Meanwhile,those risk factors are further amplified by the limitation of T group within its traditional organization structure and management mode.Therefore,to do risk management study on this project is very necessary.This thesis summarized and analyzed the risk characteristics of the international thermal power construction projects from a subcontractor's point of view,and then studied on risk management according to the actual situation of the project.The chief content can be fallen into three parts: risk identification,assessment and response.First,Schedule risk is determined as the main control target by AHP,and then the Monte Carlo simulation is used to quantitatively evaluate the risk.Crystal Ball is used as the simulation tool to obtain the completion probability and sensitive factors.Finally,based on the evaluation results,SWOT analysis and earned value method,the risk control links are improved in risk mitigation,monitoring and summary of the project.Based on the engineering examples,this paper discusses the quantification and optimization of risk management,and determines the direction of further research,which has a certain depth and high practical value.