A Decision Model Research For Route Selection Of Ships Based On Prospect Theory

With the continuous improvement of the service level of ships entering and leaving the port route,it has become possible for the port side to open up multiple routes to ease the pressure on the port.In addition,with the development of artificial intelligence,ship route intelligent decision-making has become an important research area for smart ship development.When there are multiple routes available for ship selection,how the ship chooses the optimal route based on the relationship between different risks and benefits becomes one of the key issues that need to be resolved in the development of intelligent transportation of vessels.At present,scholars at home and abroad have conducted extensive research on route selection for ship transportation,but mainly focus on ship path optimization and vessel evasion based on related risk theory.There are relatively few studies on the influence of human factors on route selection.The influence mechanism of individual preferences of decision makers remains to be further studied.Based on the ship route selection problem,taking the individual preference of decision makers in the prospect theory as the theoretical basis,some research is conducted in this paper from the perspective of the decision maker.The main contents of the thesis include:(1)Analysis of the differences in individual preference of ship route selection.Through the analysis of route selection problems of typical ships,the impact of individual preferences of decision makers on route selection schemes is evaluated,and subjective and objective factors affecting the route selection of ships are analyzed and extracted based on route selection decision process.Finally,according to the individual behavior characteristics of decision-makers,the behavior decision model under the condition of limited rationality is constructed,and the influencing factors and individual differences of decision-makers' preference are studied.(2)Route selection decision modeling based on prospect theory.According to the analysis of prospect theoretical value function,probability weight function,and reference point connotation,abstracting from the practical application scenario of route selection,a decision model is constructed by using prospect theory to reflect individual preferences of decision makers.The TOPSIS method is adopted to process the prospect value ranking problem.The decision model framework is constructed and the calculation process is presented.(3)Verification of the effectiveness of the proposed ship route selection model.Taking three routes in a port area as the research object,the key influence factors are selected to construct the relevant index system;the prospect theory is adopted combining with the probabilistic weights and the TOPSIS-based ranking method respectively to make the decision calculation,and the consistency of the route selection and sequencing of the two methods is performed.In the discussion,model usability analysis is conducted from the angle of ship size and individual risk attitude.Based on the study of ship route selection,the paper considers the risk appetite of decision-makers under the bounded rationality,and provides a new way for the ship's intelligent aided decision-making system to more accurately evaluate the decision-makers' analysis method.Besides,the proposed method can provide some theoretical support for the study of the mechanism of interest difference in the process of route selection.At the same time,it is also a further enrichment of the water traffic flow theory to study the ship route decision-making from the perspective of individual preferences considering the logical relationship between the various influencing factors affecting ship route selection and defining the selection process of alternatives.