Research On The Forecast And Optimization Of Power Supply Structure In Jiangsu Considering Renewable Energy Power

With the rapid growth of national economy,especially the development of heavy industry,energy and environmental issues in China are increasingly prominent.Specifically,the imbalance between fossil energy supply and demand and irrational structure of energy consumption bring about a crisis of energy shortage that China's facing.Meanwhile,the gap between energy reserves and demands is becoming greater.Affected by international climate policies such as the Paris Agreement and the China-US Joint Statement on Climate Change,China bears greater pressure on energy conservation and emission reduction.Among them,power sector,as the main source of energy consumption and pollutant emissions,need to consider how to control installed capacity of coal-fired power generation in order to realize the transition to clean energy.As a representative of economically developed provinces in China,Jiangsu Province has high dependence on energy resources,and is faced with more serious problems on power safety and environment.Therefore,it is necessary to reasonably predict and optimize power structure of Jiangsu Province based on the primary task of ensuring the safety of power supply,thereby promoting the coordinated development of resources,environment and society.This study has constructed power structure prediction and optimization model of Jiangsu Province,which takes the lowest total cost of power system as the objective function and considers power load balance,power supply and demand balance,demand side response,and atmospheric pollutant emission as realistic contraints.Meanwhile,based on the theory of power output,innovative technologies diffusion and learning curve,as well as the prediction of relevant scholars,all parameters have been reasonably predicted and set up.The model can simulate the power structure evolution roadmap in different scenarios,such as electricity demand,policy subsidies and carbon emission control intensity.Moreover,atmospheric emissions and energy efficiency power plants capacity can be measured.In conclusion,this model can predict and optimize the development of different power technology in Jiangsu Province from the perspective of “source-net-load”.The results show that the increase in electricity demand will promote an increase in total installed capacity.In the general demand scenario,coal-fired generators will increase to 89.36 million kW in 2050,and generate approximately 508.816 billion kWh.Clean energy power generators will grow up to 158.52 million kW and generate approximately 466.955 billion kWh.In different demand scenarios,the faster the electricity growth rate,the higher the installed capacity of coal and solar energy,while nuclear power,wind power and hydropower remain the diffusion limit.When the policy subsidy is considered,coal-fired installed capacity will further decline.In 2050,the installed capacity of coal-fired generators reaches about 87.44 million kW,which is 1.92 million kW fewer than that in the REF scenario,while clean energy capacity will further increase to 168.39 million kW.When carbon emission control intensity is further strengthened and demand growth is high,coal-fired installed capacity will be suppressed,while non-fossil energy will continue to grow.In 2050,clean energy installed capacity in the LC scenario will be 175.14 million kW and in the LCS scenario that will reach 181.99 million kW.According to the above conclusions,this study suggests optimizing power generation structure to increase the proportion of clean and low-carbon energy consumption,strengthening demand-side management and energy efficiency management,and improving the subsidization mechanism of renewable energy generation,etc.These conclusions and suggestions can be provided as references for relevant decision-making departments.