Research On Operation Energy Consumption And Carbon Emission Prediction Of Residential Heating In Main Urban Area Of Chongqing Based On LEAP

With the acceleration of urbanization in China and the increasing global warming,the development of low-carbon energy-saving in cities has attracted more and more attention.As a typical city in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River,Chongqing has a large population and a bad climate.Therefore,energy saving and low carbon development of residential heating is particularly important.Based on LEAP platform,this paper uses data survey,statistical analysis,factor analysis,scenario analysis and other methods to forecast residential heating energy consumption and carbon emissions from 2018 to 2030.Set up several contrast scenarios,compare the energy consumption prediction results under each scenario,and analyze the impact of each impact factor on the prediction results.The specific work is as follows:Firstly,many energy analysis platforms at home and abroad are selected and LEAP platform is selected.The application situation,module structure,data requirement and operation principle of LEAP are described in detail.It also investigates the status quo of Chongqing regional division,climate environment and indoor thermal comfort,the status quo of energy-saving policies,the status quo of residential classification and the status quo of household heating energy consumption.Secondly,the characteristics of family structure type,building energy-saving standards and heating equipment are analyzed.80 energy-using scenarios are set for residential heating in Chongqing main urban area,and the energy consumption intensity of each scenario is simulated by DesignBuilder V5.03.Thirdly,the LEAP model framework is designed to analyze the annual variation of population structure,building thermal performance and power grid emission factors.The LEAP model is introduced into the activity level,energy consumption intensity and emission level module,and the initial model is used to predict the residential heating energy consumption and carbon emissions in Chongqing Metropolitan Area from 2018 to 2030.Finally,this paper sets up four comparative scenarios,i.e.population structure proportion change scenario,energy-saving standard implementation proportion change scenario,both changes and their constant,analyses the predicted results of energy consumption and carbon emissions,verifies the impact of population structure and building thermal performance change on the predicted results,and obtains the energy consumption and carbon emissions forecast for the next 13 years.