Agent-based Incentive Policy Simulation Research Of Prefabricated Residential Building

The development of prefabricated construction(PC)can change the"extensive"growth pattern of construction industry in China,it can be helpful to decrease the environment pollution,reduce accidents in construction industry and guarantee the quality of building products,it is one of the main directions to realize the construction industry transformation.At present,PC industry is in the preliminary stages,its cost is higher than traditional construction method and its scale development needs policy support.It is necessary to simulate prefabricated residential construction development and analyze the impact and efficiency of different policies so that the government could make better policy decisions and boost the development of a more resource-conserving society and of urban sustainable development.First,development status and relevant policies of PC industry are summarized and analyzed,cost data about PC and housing industry related data in Wuhan are collected to build the agent-based development simulation model of Wuhan prefabricated residential building.Different policy and cost change scenarios are set up to simulate the possible development results of Wuhan prefabricated residential building industry.Simulation results and policy targets are compared and analyzed.Second,On the premise of achieving the policy objectives,the subsidy policy is optimized and the results of other indicators are compared with the results from the model without subsidy policy optimization.Finally,the development trend of the prefabricated residential building industry under the condition of implementing the carbon trading policy and the project transfer restriction policy based on the building area is analyzed,and the simulation results of other indicators before and after the implementation of the policy are compared to analyze the feasibility of the policies.The simulation results show that the subsidy need to reach 100 yuan/m~2(the incremental cost of prefabricated buildings decreases linearly by 300 yuan before 2026)or240 yuan/m~2(the incremental cost reduction of prefabricated buildings conforms to the law of learning curve),the proportion of prefabricated building area in new building area can reach the target of 30%in 2026.Under the premise of reaching the policy goal,the subsidy can be optimized to some extent.After the optimization of the subsidy policy,the total subsidy required in all circumstances decreased.In addition,after the optimization of subsidy policy,the results of other simulation indicators also improved which represents the increase of policy efficiency.At present,the introduction of carbon trade policy in the construction industry has little impact on the development of prefabricated buildings.The implementation of the project transfer restriction policy have both positive and negative effects,so it should be applied properly.