Research On The Impact Of New Energy Vehicle Industry Subsidy And Its Decline

The automobile industry is an important pillar industry of the national economy and plays an important role in the development of the national economy and society.However,with the rapid development of the automobile industry,energy shortages and environmental pollution are becoming more and more serious.New energy vehicles can effectively solve such problems due to their advantages such as energy saving and environmental protection,and become the development trend and direction of the future automotive industry.With the advancement of new energy vehicle technology,it may become a perfect substitute for fuel vehicles in the future.Vigorously developing and cultivating the new energy automobile industry can promote the sustainable development of the automobile industry and accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the automobile industry.To this end,countries around the world have accelerated their deployment of new energy vehicle industries.In the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan",China has elevated the new energy vehicle industry to a national strategic position as one of the seven strategic emerging industries.After the "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Development Plan(2012-2020)" issued by the State Council in 2012,the central and local governments issued a series of policy encouragements from the perspective of financial subsidies,tax incentives,government procurement,research and development subsidies and infrastructure construction And support the development of new energy vehicle industry.Stimulated by a large number of support policies,although China's new energy vehicle industry has developed rapidly,it has also exposed many problems caused by the government's use of industrial policies.For example,a large amount of subsidy funds have been obtained by enterprises through improper means.The industry lacks core technologies,huge government financial pressure,and low R&D investment.To this end.the government proposed a subsidy receding plan in 2016,and it is expected that the subsidy will be fully withdrawn by 2020.Based on the above research background,this article studies the following issues through the DID model method:1.The impact of the state subsidy policy on the new energy vehicle industry;2.The impact of the subsidy decline policy on the new energy vehicle industry;Whether the increase in facilities can partially offset the negative impact of falling subsidies.This article first analyzes the current status of the development of the new energy vehicle industry in China,and sorts out the policies of the new energy vehicle industry.Then based on China's passenger car sales data,this paper uses the difference-in-difference method to study the impact of subsidy policies on overall sales of new energy passenger cars,and the classification of new energy passenger cars by power type,vehicle use and range,and through group regression to study the impact of subsidy policies on various types of vehicles,and then consider the impact of restrictions on line and purchase,and renew the overall implementation of new energy vehicles.return.Secondly,this article studies the impact of subsidized subsidence on the new energy vehicle industry through general DID,and discusses the impact of subsidized subsidence on various models.It is found that subsidized subsidence has a greater impact on battery electric vehicles,and the impact of public charging piles on the market structure of new energy vehicles is not large.Finally,the conclusions of this article are collated,and policies are evaluated and recommended based on the research conclusions.This paper finds that:1.Subsidy policy has indeed played a role in promoting the development of the new energy automobile industry.The subsidy policy implemented by the central government from 2009 to 2019 increased the market share of new energy vehicles by about 40%,of which the market share of battery electric vehicles increased by 42%,and battery electric vehicles squeezed the market for some plug-in hybrid vehicles,and cars and new energy vehicles with low range of range were more sensitive to subsidies.When the restrictions on the purchase of cities,subsidies to the new energy vehicle market share increased by 76.7%,which shows that in the limited purchase of cities,consumer demand for new energy vehicles is rigid,less sensitive to subsidies.2.Subsidy degrades have led to a decline in the market share of new energy vehicles.The first subsidy withdrawal in 2016-2017 reduced the market share of new energy vehicles by 61%,with the market share of battery electric vehicles falling by 50%,with little impact on plug-in hybrid vehicles.3.When the number of charging infrastructure increases,the negative impact of subsidy decline has been mitigated,and every 1%increase in charging piles increases the market share of new energy vehicles by 0.08%,but this impact is small,which also shows that consumers are less sensitive to the number of public charging piles.Based on the above research results,this paper has the following policy implications:1.At present,China's new energy vehicle industry policies are mainly focused on the consumer side,while new energy vehicle enterprise R&D incentives are relatively small,mostly local government policies.The government can give appropriate subsidies to the technology research and development of enterprises to encourage them to research and develop new energy vehicle technologies.2.Different cities can implement differentiated traffic management.From the research results,it can be seen that in some cities with restricted lines and purchases,subsidies can have a greater promotion effect on the new energy vehicle industry.3.In the development process of the new energy automobile industry,the guarantee of product quality and the effective implementation of subsidies are inseparable from government supervision,and the construction of a supervision system should be strengthened.4.The downhill policy may be too hastily.A large decline or even cancellation of subsidies is likely to cause violent fluctuations in the new energy automobile industry.The buffer period for subsidy declines should be appropriately extended so that businesses and consumers can gradually adapt.New subsidy standards.5.There may be problems with the current policy of car replacement and pile replacement.China's pile-to-vehicle ratio is greater than the international standard of 1:10,which is a global leader.China does not lack piles in quantity.At the same time,the construction of a large number of piles cannot effectively reduce the negative impact of slop.It is not sensitive.Therefore,the current policy of replenishing cars to piles is problematic and should be adjusted,such as subsidizing the charging cost of charging piles.6.Unified interface standards for charging piles.Many manufacturers' charging piles have their own interface methods,such as Tesla,which makes it extremely inconvenient for consumers to use the charging pile,which may also be the reason why consumers are not sensitive to the charging pile.7.Promote the development of new energy automobile enterprises from the aspect of financial services.The state can relax the loan requirements for new energy automobile enterprises so that enterprises can smoothly pass the initial stage and reach a reasonable production scale.