Research On The Influencing Factors And Prediction Of Decoration Project Cost Based On Principal Component Regression

At present,China's economy is in a critical period of kinetic energy conversion and high-quality development.In order to adapt to the structural adjustment of China's economy,all industries are trying to play their best role and contribute to further deepening reform.As an important branch of the construction industry,the construction and decoration industry plays an important role in expanding domestic demand,promoting employment,industrial development,promoting domestic economic growth and so on.However,in recent years,the market competition environment in the construction and decoration industry is becoming increasingly fierce,increasingly white hot,and the per capita profit-making level is also declining.The industry characteristics of high profit rate have been rarely recognized,but "live" has become the main theme of the industry.Therefore,all decoration enterprises have to do their best to find effective methods and ways to enhance their core competitiveness.Under the premise of ensuring the construction quality,in order to obtain the project profit and maintain the cash flow of the enterprise,cost prediction has become an important part of the bidding decision-making,the preparation of cost plan and the formulation of project management responsibility objectives of all enterprises,and has been paid more and more attention by managers.Firstly,this paper introduces the traditional cost forecasting methods,the more commonly used cost forecasting methods based on stepwise regression analysis and principal component regression analysis and their implementation steps,which lays a theoretical foundation for the establishment of the subsequent model.Secondly,using the methods of literature research and case analysis to identify and establish the influencing factor system of decoration project cost,and then using the method of expert interview to screen the influencing factor system of decoration project cost,to determine the construction schedule management,management experience level,material loss control level,material purchase price,project quality Six key factors such as quantity management level and indirect cost management.Then,through thefurther combination of the collected historical project cost data of a decoration company and the selected key influencing factor indicators,15 independent indicators of influencing factors of the principal component regression model are comprehensively determined,and then the principal component regression model is established.Finally,three finished decoration projects of a decoration company are randomly selected for empirical analysis,and the rationality of the established principal component regression model is verified by comparing the predicted value with the actual value.At the same time,according to the regression coefficient of each variable in the model,it is determined that the project scale,material cost,indirect cost and project duration are the most important independent variable indexes that affect the cost prediction value of decoration engineering project.Then it analyzes the specific impact on the project cost,shares the optimization control measures,and exchanges experience for further control of the project cost.