Research On Risk Management Of Sponge City PPP Project Based On D-S Evidence Theory

In recent years,with the frequent occurrence of “city watching the sea” and flood disasters in many places in China,it has caused tremendous pressure and damage to the urban system,and at the same time,it has brought certain economic losses to urban residents and threatened life safety.In order to effectively cope with the situation of urban shackles,control the occurrence of rainwater risks and balance the relationship between urban drainage and ecosystems.The state put forward the concept of “sponge city” as a new eco-city construction and actively promoted it.Since the construction of Sponge City PPP project is a large and complex comprehensive system project,and the model is in the initial exploration stage,the government and social capital side are concerned with risk management.The lack of experience has led to frequent occurrence of risk events in the construction of many sponge city PPP pilot projects,which has restricted the application and normal development of sponge cities.On the basis of past research,the Qingdao Sponge City PPP pilot project was selected as the research object,and a comprehensive evaluation and analysis of the risk management of Sponge City PPP project was made,and corresponding solutions were proposed.This thesis firstly introduces and compares the sponge city and PPP model at home and abroad,combines the characteristics of traditional urban drainage in China and the development status of sponge city in China,and investigates its risk management and clarifies the current sponge city.Problems and root causes of risk management in PPP projects.Using literature research and expert interviews to identify and recognize the risk factors of Sponge City PPP project,and use the DEMATEL method to focus on the main risks from the five dimensions of “politics,economy,laws and regulations and contracts,project self-construction and external natural environment”.The elements are subjected to secondary screening analysis to identify key factors and establish a risk list.According to the risk list,the risk evaluation index system of Sponge City PPP project was constructed.The weights of each index were determined by the combination of Projection Pursuit(PPC)and Delphi method.The risk evaluation model was established based on DS evidence theory,and the model was applied to Qingdao sponge.The urban PPP project carries out risk safety assessment analysis,demonstrates its rationality and applicability,and finally proposes measures and suggestions for risk response,which provides some reference for the actual construction risk management of Sponge City PPP project.