Study On The Transfer Connection Between Rail Transit And Conventional Bus In Chongqing

The urban public transport system is an important part of urban comprehensive transport system,which plays a pivotal role in urban economy,social development and people's life.A large number of studies at home and abroad show that the priority development of urban public transport is an important way to solve urban traffic congestion and improve the image of a city.Rail transit can provide comfortable and fast medium and long distance urban travel services,and ground conventional buses have a high-density,full-coverage line network,both of which have good functional complementarity and are irreplaceable core components of chongqing urban public transport system.However,the historical development of rail transit and ground conventional buses is relatively independent,and the planning of integrated transfer and connection lags behind,which leads to a large amount of transfer costs when travelers transfer between the two systems of rail transit and ground conventional buses,which seriously affects the satisfaction of public transportation.Therefore,this paper focuses on the research of integrated transfer between rail transit and ground conventional bus in the main urban area of chongqing.In terms of theoretical basis,the characteristics of rail transit and ground conventional public transport are analyzed in detail,and the characteristics of the two are compared and analyzed,and their respective functional positioning is given.Then the design requirements and related concepts of integrated transfer and connection facilities of rail transit and ground conventional bus are introduced.Then,the paper expounds the theories related to rail transit and ground conventional bus transfer and connection from three aspects: transfer and connection objective,transfer and connection optimization principle and main forms of transfer and connection.Finally,the experience of typical cases of rail and bus transfer in Hong Kong,Singapore and Beijing is summarized.In order to accurately grasp the development trend of rail and bus transfer passenger flow.This paper firstly analyzes the transfer flow from three aspects: the general development of transfer flow in chongqing,the time characteristics of monthly transfer flow and the spatial characteristics of monthly transfer flow.Then,the EMD theory,which can transform the non-stationary primitive sequence into several stationary component sequences,and the ARIMA prediction model with superior performance in the prediction of stationary time series are fused to construct a time prediction model based on emd-arima,and the evaluation indexes of the prediction model are set from the two directions of accuracy and similarity.The test results of jiaju road station of light rail line 3 show that the emd-arima prediction model is due to the BP neural network and the traditional ARIMA prediction model in the prediction of non-stationary time series such as passenger flow.Use the model to predict passenger flow for the top 50 rail stations in 2019,predict the top 20 rail stations for monthly average passenger flow in 2020,and focus on optimization in the next step.This article first from the shuttle bus terminal,shuttle theory-oriented and shuttle services integration of three dimensions in downtown of chongqing rail and bus transfer interchange construction present situation has carried on the comprehensive combing,and identify the elaborating design insufficiency,the feeder terminal feeder line network integration development is slow and shuttle services informationization level low main problems;Then,from the five aspects of bus stops,bus stops,bus stops and stops,bus connection lines and connection service facilities,this paper proposes the optimization strategy to promote the development of integrated rail and bus transfer and connection.Finally,the research contents of this paper are summarized and the further research directions are proposed.