Study On The Risk Prediction And Prevent Ive Measures Of Ship Pilotage In Guangzhou Port

In recent years,with the rapid development of Guangzhou port,the number of ships it serves is increasing day by day.With the prosperity of Guangzhou port trade,security has become the first priority for the normal operation of the port.As an important part of port safety,Guangzhou port's ship pilotage always takes safety as the first priority,strives to build a first-class pilot team,constantly improves the pilotage environment,and completes the ship pilotage work.However,due to the large navigable density and complex navigable environment of ships in the waters of Guangzhou port,as well as the wide variety and huge tonnage of ships,the challenge of pilotage business is increasingly arduous.In the pilotage work,if we can predict the risks in the ship pilotage,it will be of great significance to do a good job of prevention against the possible accidents for further ensuring the safety of the ship pilotage in Guangzhou port and realizing an orderly and environmental Guangzhou port.Considering above problems,this paper comprehensively expounds the current situation of Ship Pilotage in Guangzhou port,analyzes the port environment,risk sources of ship pilotage and the characteristics of pilotage accidents in the past few years,and summarizes the characteristics and shortcomings of Ship Pilotage in Guangzhou port from different aspects.Secondly,the paper sums up the possible causes of the risk sources of the pilotage accidents in Guangzhou port,evaluates the risk of the ship pilotag by using the FSA method,and obtains the risk characteristics of the pilotage in Guangzhou port.To control the accidents or dangers that may occur in the pilotage work of Guangzhou port in the future,Bayesian method is used to predict the risk of the pilotage work of Guangzhou port,and some specific control measures and suggestions are given according to the prediction results.Finally,the whole forecast management and control system is sorted out,and the risk forecast and control system of Guangzhou port ship pilotage is summarized from a higher dimension.