Research On Risk Management Of Construction Schedule Under EPC Management Mode Of Prefabricated House

At present,the prefabricated residential project adopts the EPC general contract management mode and is vigorously promoted and implemented by the state.The combination of the two can effectively solve the disconnection of the three stages of prefabricated component production,prefabricated component transportation and assembly construction during the construction process,making the prefabricated housing The project can be completed on schedule.Due to the extensive and special sources of project construction progress risk under the EPC general contract management mode of prefabricated houses,and the professional construction technology of prefabricated houses in China is still immature and the construction experience is relatively lacking,these will have a certain impact on the completion of the construction schedule of the project Therefore,it is necessary to carry out in-depth research on the construction schedule risk management of the EPC general contract management model project of prefabricated houses.This article first describes the advantages of prefabricated houses,analyzes their applicability to the EPC management model,and combines domestic and foreign prefabricated houses and EPC general contracting project construction progress risk research results,based on prefabricated house construction schedule risk characteristics and risks Management-related theories,using literature analysis,expert surveys,and reliability and validity tests,screened and determined 26 risk factors for project construction progress under the EPC general contract management model of prefabricated houses.Based on the questionnaire data,GeNIe2.0 software was used to learn the structure of the data using the K2 algorithm,and the conditional probability distribution of each node variable of the project construction schedule under the EPC general contract management mode of prefabricated houses was obtained.Using expert experience to further adjust and optimize the Bayesian network diagram,complete the construction of the Bayesian network risk probability model of the project construction schedule in the EPC general contract management mode of the prefabricated house,and then reverse inference and sensitivity of the Bayesian network model Analysis and analysis of the largest cause chain to obtain the key and sensitive risk factors for the construction progress of the EPC general contract management model of prefabricated residential buildings.Finally,according to the key risk factors,corresponding risk management measures and suggestions are proposed to improve the general contractor's management level on the construction progress of the EPC general contract management model project of prefabricated houses.Finally,the Bayesian network risk probabilistic model is applied to the construction progress of the Shenzhen EPC management model project of prefabricated houses to verifythe applicability and operability of the model.Firstly,the construction progress risk factors of Shenzhen's prefabricated residential affordable housing project are analyzed,and then the survey data is substituted into the constructed Bayesian network risk probability model.Finally,the schedule delay expectations of Shenzhen's prefabricated residential affordable housing project are obtained The expected delay of the schedule is 30 days,and the actual schedule is delayed by 26 days.The predicted results are basically consistent with the actual results.In this paper,through the research on the construction progress risk management of the EPC management mode project of prefabricated houses,the construction progress risk management research system of the EPC management mode of prefabricated houses is further improved.The Bayesian network model constructed in this paper can not only enable the general contractor to The construction progress of the EPC general contract management model of the residential project can be scientifically and effectively controlled,and can also ensure that the project is completed on schedule and obtain corresponding project profits.