Study On The Economic Agglomeration Effect Of The Opening Of High-speed Railway

Beijing-Guangzhou high speed railway,as an important vertical in the eight vertical and eight horizontal,has a high academic research value on the economic impact of its opening on the cities along the line.Therefore,it is specially selected as the research object to analyze its impact on the economic agglomeration of the tertiary industry in the cities along the line.Specifically,it is carried out from the perspective of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis.In the part of theoretical analysis,combining the Classical Location theory and the New Economic Geography theory,this paper analyzes the theoretical mechanism that affects the economic agglomeration of cities along the line.It shows that the opening of high-speed railway,as an important exogenous impact,causes the change of the degree of freedom of trade in the areas along the high-speed railway line,and the change of the degree of freedom of trade causes the flow of factors and then causes the scale economy,while in turn affects the degree of trade freedom.Under the effect of the circular accumulation mechanism,the relative size of "concentration" and "dispersion" determines the specific effect of economic agglomeration.In the empirical analysis,this paper first uses the trend score matching method to match the cities with high-speed rail along the line,in order to find a control group as similar as possible and reduce the deviation of empirical estimation.Then,on the basis of sample matching,further use the DID to study the net effect of Beijing-Guangzhou high-speed rail on the economic agglomeration of cities along the line,and combine the dynamic effect to analyze the net effect and the heterogeneity of different industries is discussed in detail.In the robustness part,the paper tests the robustness of the results of this paper by replacing the explained variables,changing the matching strategy and changing the time bandwidth.At the same time,based on the characteristics of the opening of Beijing-Guangzhou high-speed railway in different periods,further empirical research on the opening of high-speed railway in different periods shows that the results of this paper are robust.Through the above theoretical and empirical analysis,the conclusions are summarized as follows: First of all,the empirical results show that the opening of Beijing-Guangzhou highspeed railway promotes the overall economic agglomeration of cities along the line,and the dynamic effect shows that the overall economic agglomeration is a U-shaped trend of first rising and then declining,and reaches the turning point in 2013.The regression results of further subdivided industries show that the opening of Beijing-Guangzhou high speed railway mainly promotes the economic agglomeration of 8 subdivided industries,including public management and social organization industry,real estate industry,transportation,storage,post and telecommunications industry,health,social insurance and social welfare industry,leasing and commercial service industry,scientific research,technical service and geological exploration industry,accommodation and catering industry,residential service and other service industries.The regression results of different city scale benchmarks show that the whole sample can promote the economic agglomeration of large and medium-sized cities.Secondly,the result of inter regional regression show that the opening of Beijing-Guangzhou high-speed railway can promote the economic agglomeration of the cities along the line,both for the WuhanGuangzhou section and the Beijing-Wuhan section.The dynamic effect trend is also have inverse U-shaped relationship,and the highest point distance of the Wuhan-Guangzhou section is different.There is a lag of 2 years in the opening time,and a lag of 1 year between the highest point of Beijing-Wuhan section and the opening time of Beijing-Wuhan section.Further heterogeneity analysis shows that the opening of Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail mainly promotes the economic agglomeration of large-scale cities along the line,while for small and medium-sized cities,the main role is diffusion,that is,there is obvious siphon effect in WuhanGuangzhou section;the opening of Beijing-Wuhan high-speed rail mainly promotes the economic agglomeration of small and medium-sized cities,while the role of economic agglomeration in large-scale cities is not significant.