A Research Of China's Energy Rebound Effect Measurement Based On Terminal Energy Intensity Decomposition

Energy is an indispensable material for us and plays an important role in our social development.As a major energy country,energy is the cornerstone of China's sustained,rapid and healthy development.However,China's energy consumption continues to grow and remains high.Along with the rapid growth of energy consumption,there are serious problems of environmental pollution and energy security.How to achieve coordinated development of energy,economy and environment is a major strategy of China.Some measures must be taken to improve the energy efficiency and reduce the environmental pollution.Especially,to improve the energy efficiency is a key means for governments to reduce energy consumption.In fact,it didn't work out totally.The researches of scholars at home and abroad show that there are both an improvement of energy efficiency and an energy rebound effect at the same time.This phenomenon is prevalent in most developing countries and the problem of low energy efficiency and energy rebound effect is especially prominent in China for that it is at a certain stage of industrialization.Improvement of energy efficiency is important,but the existence of energy rebound effect can't be ignored.To achieve the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction,both of them should be fully considered.Therefore,it is of great significance to accurately measure the rebound effect,to objectively analyze and understand its influence,which is useful for China to get rid of the dilemma of low efficiency,high energy consumption and heavy pollution.Firstly,analyze the current situation of energy using in China.Then conduct a decomposition analysis on the terminal energy consumption intensity of China through the LMDI decomposition model,decomposing it into technological progress effect,structure effect,substitution effect and econ omic effect.Finally,build the energy rebound effect calculation model and calculate the energy conservation,energy resilience and the energy rebound effect.Conclusions show that:(1)During the sample period,there is a serious imbalance and huge gap between energy supply and energy demand in China.The energy consumption structure is not reasonable,but witnessing a gradual turn good momentum.Energy intensity shows a periodic variation characteristic and present a downward trend as a whole;(2)Terminal energy consumption total effect of China continues to decline,and the growth is increasing.Among four big effects,technological effect is the most important factors affect terminal energy intensity change and the structure effect,substitution effect and economic effect affect little.But it can't be ignored;(3)The problem of energy rebound effect is prominent and the existence of rebound effect is greatly reduced energy saving effect.Fortunately,the energy rebound effect is generally descending.