Research On China's Energy Rebound Effect

Energy is an important material foundation and motive force in economic development,in the 1960 s oil crisis,energy security has become the focus of world attention.Represented by the international energy agency(IEA),the international energy cooperation organization in the world within the scope of promoting energy efficiency,promote the development of global energy.In China,the world’s largest coal consumption big country,with the economic development,the contradiction between supply and demand of energy is outstanding,the per capita and per unit product energy efficiency is low,unbalanced energy consumption structure and energy consumption of the environmental pollution problems bring great challenges to the development of China’s economic and social.Always adhere to the energy conservation and emission reduction in our country,since the "ten During the first five-year began to develop energy saving goal,much starker choices-and graver consequences-in established energy intensity fell by 15% in 2015,the total energy consumption of no more than 5 billion tons of standard coal dual goal.Built in 2020 is a comprehensive well-off society and the "final year much starker choices-and graver consequences-in" plan,to the end of 2019,China’s energy intensity of 0.63,down 21.1% compared with 2015,but the total energy consumption is not as energy intensity and reduce,instead of rising.Due to the objective existence of the energy rebound effect,economic scale to produce new energy consumption might offset some or all of the energy efficiency savings,Lead to some or all of the energy saving policy failure,can not reach the expected energy saving effect.China’s energy intensity reduce energy consumption of the objective facts may be caused by energy rebound effect,it is necessary to analyze whether there is a rebound effect in our country,and to explore the extent of the energy rebound in our country,from the lower energy springback Angle of energy policy.Based on the energy rebound effect mechanism from two aspects of macroscopic and microscopic analysis of China’s energy rebound effect.From the macro level of the east and Midwest three major geographical areas of energy rebound effect.Based on the three key elements of production function under the new classical economic theory,the provincial panel data in different periods,using solow residual method estimates the east and Midwest technology progress contribution rate.On the basis of energy springback mechanism to estimate the east and Midwest energy effect,the validation of China energy springback problem,and the eastern Midwest energy rebound effects are difference analysis.From the micro-level analysis the energy rebound effect at different periods of national economic sectors Based on the input-output model theory,a value-based energy input-output table containing physical flow was constructed to calculate the direct energy consumption coefficient and complete energy consumption coefficient of each department,and to calculate the energy rebound difference of each department under the condition of the change of initial energy input and the improvement of energy efficiency.This paper’s main conclusions:(1)China’s total energy consumption growth remains at a relatively low level and energy consumption per unit of output declines.However,the increase of economic stimulus to energy demand leads to the contradiction between energy supply and demand gradually.China’s energy consumption structure still needs to be constantly optimized,from a single energy consumption structure to a diversified transformation.Industrial production requires the most energy consumption.In 2018,the six energy-intensive sectors accounted for 43% of the total energy consumption of the industrial sectors.The eastern region has the lowest energy intensity but the highest energy consumption.The difference between the amount of energy saved by the reduction of energy intensity and the amount of energy added leads to different degrees of rebound between regions.The environmental problems caused by energy consumption pose great challenges to economic and social development.(2)China has energy rebound effect,and the estimated value of energy rebound is about 45%,indicating that the actual energy saving caused by China’s energy conservation policy only reaches a part of the expected energy saving in theory.In terms of regions,the value of rebound effect in the eastern and western regions at different time periods fluctuated.The energy savings were greatest in the eastern region,followed by the central region and finally the western region.The average energy rebound value of the eastern region is the smallest,and the average energy rebound value of the western region is the largest.From the perspective of sub-industries,the energy rebound fluctuation range of the primary industry and the tertiary industry is smaller than that of the secondary industry,which belongs to partial rebound.Among them,the energy intensive industry,the direct energy consumption is big,the energy rebound effect is big.Low energy consumption and direct use for final consumption,sectors not closely related to other industrial sectors,energy rebound effect is small.When energy efficiency is improved,the indirect energy consumption has little effect on the overall energy rebound.When energy efficiency is improved,the overall energy rebound is greatly affected by the indirect energy consumption generated by the intermediate sector.(3)industrial structure,energy efficiency and energy price affect energy rebound to a certain extent.In the long run,the energy rebound value decreases with the increase of the contribution of tertiary industry to economic growth.The improvement of energy efficiency is not conducive to the reduction of energy rebound value,but from the long-term trend,the improvement of energy efficiency will not cause the significant increase and fluctuation of energy rebound value,and the reduction of energy consumption per unit output value is still an effective energy saving measure.The energy price is affected by the government regulation policy,and the impact on the energy rebound shows a trend of fluctuation.