Research On The Mechanism And Calculation Of Energy Rebound Effect

Starting from the 11 th five-year Plan,China has set targets for energy conservation and consumption reduction,including a 20% reduction in energy consumption during the 11 th five-year Plan and a 5% reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP during the 12 th five-year Plan.During the 13 th five-year Plan,the energy intensity decreased by 15% compared with 2015,and the total energy consumption did not exceed 5 billion tons of standard coal.However,these energy conservation measures and energy efficiency improvement policies have not prevented the growth of total energy consumption in China.Compared with 2006,the energy intensity of China decreased by 60.5% in 2018.However,the total energy consumption of China reached 4.64 billion tons of standard coal,an increase of 62.2 percent over 2.86 billion tons of standard coal in 2006.Academic research shows that with the existence of energy rebound effect,technological progress not only leads to the reduction of energy consumption per unit product,but also leads to the increase of energy consumption,which in turn leads to the increase of total energy consumption.Therefore,the increase of total energy consumption in China may be caused by the energy rebound effect.It is necessary to study the energy rebound effect in China,to explore whether there is an energy rebound effect in China,and to formulate energy saving policies from the perspective of reducing the energy rebound effect.Firstly,this paper analyzes the definition of the energy rebound effect,and analyzes the situational process of the rebound effect.On this basis,combined with consumer theory and producer theory,based on the micro-perspective,the mechanism of rebound effect is explained theoretically.Secondly,combined with the definition and occurrence mechanism of rebound effect,the energy input-output model is constructed to calculate the direct and indirect energy rebound effect in China.Considering the inter-industry interdependence and the energy input-output of the industry,calculation of rebound effect value of Energy consumption in China based on relevant data of different Industries.Finally,based on the analysis of the calculation results and the occurrence mechanism of rebound effect,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to restrain the rebound effect from the aspects of energy price,industrial structure,scientific and technological innovation and energy saving consciousness.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)The calculation of rebound effect shows that there is energy rebound effect in China,and the value of rebound effect is between 40% and 60%.This shows that the rebound effect makes the actual energy-saving amount caused by China's energy-saving policy reach only a part of the theoretical expected energy-saving amount.(2)The research on the industry shows that among the three industries,the rebound effect of the primary industry is decreasing year by year,the rebound effect of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry is greater,and the rebound effect of some industries in the secondary industry is even more than 100%.From 1997 to 2015,the total energy rebound effect of various industries and the total energy rebound effect showed a downward trend.The analysis shows that the optimization of industrial structure is one of the important factors to reduce the energy rebound effect.The research shows that the energy rebound effect of various industries has relatively little change over the years,indicating that the rebound effect has a certain historical inertia,and this historical inertia is determined by the present situation of economic and social development.(3)For the low energy consumption industry,the indirect rebound effect is greater,while for the energy intensive industry,the direct rebound effect is greater;for the trades with a concentration of manpower,the direct rebound effect is greater in some years,and the indirect rebound effect is greater in other years.This is related to economic fluctuations and state policy support for industries.In addition,the research shows that the indirect energy rebound effect and the direct energy rebound effect have the opposite trend.(4)Industries that are more closely connected to other industries will have greater indirect rebound effects,and sectors with fewer links to other industries will increase energy efficiency and will not produce a greater indirect rebound effect.