Research On The Influence Factors Of Flight Delay And Control Model

With the development of the transportation industry,Aviation is used more frequently as a means of transportation.The unbalanced resources distribution of airport operation and management,the concentration of airlines’ flight operation plans,and the adverse changes of weather all make the airport capacity and airline traffic volume unstable.This phenomenon is one of the trigger of flight delays.This paper analyzes the relevant factors affecting flight delay from three aspects: airport,airlines and meteorology,builds a flight delay control model,improves the predictability of delay time,and helps the managers to regulate airport resources and the relationship with airlines to reduce flight delay and improve the punctuality rate.Firstly,the paper analyzed the influence of airport management on flight delay,summarized the operation process and characteristics of the airport,used granger causality to screen the influencing factors,and detected the causal relationship among cargo,passengers and luggage to flight delay.Secondly,in terms of airlines,the paper analyzed the characteristics of airlines operating strategies,established that airlines type,the size of the market concentration is the airline’s strategy characters.The market share of low-cost airlines,airport market concentration effect on the average flight time significantly higher by stepwise multiple linear regression.Thirdly,in the aspect of meteorology,we identified the definition criteria of all kinds of meteorological conditions and defined the adverse weather conditions.The relationship between adverse weather conditions and flight delays is tested by the variance analysis.Precipitation and rainy days have the greatest impact on flight delays.Finally,we built a ridge regression model of flight delay and ranked the contribution value of each factor.In the three aspects of airport,airlines and meteorology,the arrival time and departure time,the share of low-cost airlines and the degree of market concentration,high temperature conditions and rainy days have the greatest impact on flight delays.Therefore,the decision of airport management to mitigate flight delays is to give priority to the allocation of airport space resources,taxiway and infrastructure optimization,the choice of airlines,and the prevention of high temperature and rainy days.