| Nowadays,the coordinated development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei is a major strategy of a country,which requires the integration of the advantageous resources of the three regions,so that Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei can become a region with stronger comprehensive strength.The future growth power of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region depends on the traffic development level of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region to a great extent,while the traffic development level of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region depends on the development level of rail transit to a great extent.This paper focuses on the study of the division of labor of multi-level railway trains in Beijing-Tianjin Hebei-region,applies the non aggregate model in the theory of traffic mode division to the division of passenger independent choice of multi-level railway train travel mode,and establishes the relevant special Logit model that can explore the passenger personality characteristics and personal travel preference.The main research work is as follows:First of all,according to the structure of cross nested logit model and the characteristics of railway transportation travel,a cross nested logit model is established,which takes "different travel time" and "different travel distance" as the upper "nest" of cross nested logit model and four levels of railway trains as the lower "selection branch" of travel mode.At the same time,six characteristic variables of passengers are determined as model variables for exploration.This paper designs a questionnaire which combines SP survey and RP survey,and obtains 1010 valid samples through regional network survey and field survey of many city stations.The overall analysis of the collected sample data,and the validity analysis of the data,the results show that the obtained data has good structural validity.Then,the data were classified into similar samples,and 432 groups of representative data were obtained,which were used in the parameter calibration and calculation of the CNL model.Then,by using the discrete selection model analysis software BIOGEME 1.8 towrite a program for estimating the parameters of the CNL model,432 groups of representative data are brought in.By calculating and calibrating various parameters of the established model,analyzing the calculated parameter data,it is found that the characteristic variables of "monthly income","travel purpose" and "cost source" have significant influence on which level of railway train passengers choose to travel,while the characteristic variables of "age","gender" and "occupation" have influence on which level of railway train passengers choose to travel The noise is not significant.And the calculated data are analyzed and normalized,and the ideal multi-level railway train load sharing rate is obtained based on the passenger’s independent choice intention.Finally,in the two transportation channels of Beijing,Tianjin and Qinhuangdao in the east-west direction and Beijing Handan in the north-south direction in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei region,the division of work of the multi-level railway trains in the current stage under the conditions of "different departure time" and "different transportation distance" is investigated,and the share rate of the multi-level railway trains in the typical transportation channels of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei is obtained.Comparing the ideal share rate calculated by the model with the existing multi-level train share rate,it is found that the current multi-level train share rate of Beijing Tianjin Hebei railway is not very close to the multi-level train share rate based on the willingness of passengers,and the existing multi-level train division still has room for improvement.In view of the differences between the two,this paper puts forward some optimization suggestions such as adding new multi-level railway lines on demand,adding other levels of trains to the existing operation lines,floating pricing for different levels of trains on demand in special periods,etc.Based on the preference of railway passenger’s independent choice,this paper can fully reflect the ideal situation of passenger’s own choice demand,and the established non aggregate model can explore the impact of passenger characteristics on passenger’s travel choice,which is an ideal reference to the existing multi-level train division scheme guided by transportation demand The conclusions and suggestions are of theoretical support to improve the overall passenger ticket income in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region,and also have guiding significance for the adjustmentof train diagram. |
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