Reliability Evaluation And Maintenance Strategy Optimization Of Large Components Of Railway Freight Car Bogies With Few Failure Data

With the vigorous development of industrial technology,the state of railway vehicles equipment technology improved significantly,is of great significance for the vehicle safety reliability of the bogie of rising.It is difficult to observe bogie failure state in a short period of time,the conventional reliability evaluation method based on the failure data for reliability evaluation of similar components for high reliability.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and engineering significance to evaluate the reliability of large parts of railway freight car bogies with few failure data,and then to formulate scientific and economic maintenance strategies.In view of this,this thesis takes the large bogie components of railway freight cars as the research object,and carries out the research on the reliability assessment of large bogie components and the optimal design of maintenance strategy under the condition of few failure data.The following research work was mainly carried out:Firstly,the structural information of the research object was analyzed,the main failure modes of parts were found out according to the FMEA analysis,and the timing truncation test was designed for the monitoring data of the main failure modes to complete the preliminary analysis of the data.Secondly,after the preliminary analysis of the data,the failure probability values at each truncated time are obtained based on the improving E-Bayes method,and the parameter point estimation of the reliability function is obtained by combining the timeweighted least square method.Then,taking the side frame of bogie and the swing bolster as an example,the point estimate value of the reliability of each time point is analyzed and calculated,and the simulation data in the classical example is used to compare and analyze the estimation method at different points,so as to verify the superiority of the method selected in this thesis.Thirdly,on the basis of point estimation,the method of parameter Bootstrap was used to calculate the interval estimation values of reliability of side frame and swing bolster.Based on the data of classical examples,different interval estimation methods were compared to verify the effectiveness of parameter Bootstrap method.Finally,on the basis of the above reliability assessment,a maintenance strategy model combining iso-periodic repair and change-periodic plant repair is constructed,and the solution results are compared with the maintenance strategy of the existing side frame.The sensitivity analysis of the model parameters proves that the proposed maintenance strategy is robust and advantageous.