Research On Passenger Flow Distribution And Operation Adjustment Under Disruption Of Urban Rail Transit

Under the network operation of Urban Rail Transit(URT),the scale of lines is constantly expanding,and the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of passenger flow are constantly changing.Accurately estimating the distribution structure of passenger flow and studying the distribution status of passenger flow are helpful to improve the coupling degree of passenger flow demand and transport capacity,thus improve the level of operation and management.However,there are many safety risks in the operation of URT,and emergency disruption have different impacts on the transportation organization,which not only destroy the network structure,disrupt the normal traffic order,but also affect the passenger flow choice behavior.It is of great theoretical and practical significance to establish a set of scientific and reasonable emergency response plan for making full use of the remaining transportation capacity,minimizing the impact of disruption,and organizing passenger transport activities safely and efficiently.Therefore,based on the systematic overview of the operation disruption,this paper establishes OD distribution estimation model according to the historical passenger flow data,studies the passenger flow assignment method under disruption,and on this basis,develops the integrated operation adjustment scheme of the network line under disruption,so as to maximize the transportation capacity and reduce the impact of disruption.The specific work is as follows:(1)Firstly,this paper researches the problem of estimating for the passenger flow distribution structure.Considering the time-varying characteristics of passenger flow,based on the inbound and outbound passenger flow relationship of the station,establish the OD estimation state space model with passenger flow diversion as the state variable and outbound quantity as the observed variable.In order to solve the model,a two-stage Kalman Filter algorithm considering the time-varying of the state matrix is proposed.The estimation results of the model are analyzed from multiple perspectives through a case study.The case shows that OD distribution estimation model and algorithm based on Kalman Filter can meet the time-effectiveness requirements of large scale network estimation with excellent estimation accuracy,and provide important basic data for passenger flow assignment.(2)Secondly,based on the assignment of normal passenger flow,this paper researches the reassignment method of passenger flow under disruption.Considering the disruption location and line setting,the physical analysis method of the disruption influence scope is established to lay a foundation for the definition of the affected travel adjustment.Based on the classification of affected passenger flow,this paper analyzes the adjustment mechanism of passenger path selection behavior,establishes the principle of reassignment and the processing method of affected passenger flow,and constructs the algorithm of reassignment of passenger flow.Finally,the case analysis verifies the validity and rationality of the passenger flow assignment model and algorithm,and compares the changes of relevant passenger flow indexes.The case shows that the method of passenger flow reassignment can accurately grasp the changes of network passenger flow assignment before and after the disruption,and provide data support for the formulation of URT emergency strategies.(3)Finally,based on the assignment of passenger flow under disruption,the operation integrated adjustment of network line is researched.Based on the demand of passenger flow,establish the operation integrated adjustment mechanism of URT network.Considering the transfer connection and coordination between lines,a multi-line operation scheme model is established with the lowest enterprise cost and the minimum transfer passenger flow time cost as the optimization objectives.In order to solve the hybrid nonlinear integer programming model,a multi-objective fuzzy optimal solution method based on the intersection setting is designed.Finally,the optimization results of road network operation scheme are obtained and analyzed through a case study.The case shows that the coordinated optimization method of the operation scheme can reasonably determine the routing scheme,improve the matching degree between the transportation demand and capacity under disruption,reduce the enterprise cost,improve the passenger travel benefits,and provide theoretical support for the formulation of operation strategy under disruption.To sum up,the research on passenger flow distribution and operation adjustment of URT network under disruption,on the one hand,enriches the research results of passenger flow distribution,and is conducive to the operation department to grasp the impact mechanism of disruption.On the other hand,it has improved the emergency organization and management system under disruption,which is conducive to improving the level of operation service.