Research On Investment Decision Of Incremental Distribution Network With Distributed Photovoltaic

Incremental distribution reform is an important part of the new round of power system reform.This reform encourages social capital to invest,construct and operate incremental distribution network orderly.With the deepening of the new power system reform,many social capital participate in the incremental distribution network investment business,which increases the uncertainty factors for the incremental distribution network investment.At the same time,due to the increasingly prominent energy crisis and environmental problems,distributed photovoltaic has received more and more attention and development.Large scale distributed photovoltaic access to the power grid increases the complexity and uncertainty of incremental distribution network investment.Therefore,it has certain theoretical and practical significance to study the investment decision of incremental distribution network considering distributed photovoltaic.This paper first expounds the research background and significance of the article,analyzes the research status at home and abroad,and expounds the research content and innovation.Secondly,this paper introduces the relevant theories of investment decisionmaking,compares the traditional investment decision-making method with the real option method,and concludes that the real option method can make up for the shortcomings of the traditional investment decision-making method when valuing the projects with greater uncertainty,and is more suitable for the investment decision-making research of incremental distribution network projects.After that,this paper discusses the development status of incremental distribution network and distributed photovoltaic,and analyzes the cost revenue of incremental distribution network considering distributed photovoltaic.Then,according to the option characteristics of incremental distribution network investment activities,this paper selects the B-S model to build the incremental distribution network investment decision model.At the same time,this paper gives the value method of related parameters,and studies the calculation of volatility,an important parameter.According to the characteristics of incremental distribution network project,this paper constructs a volatility calculation model based on grey prediction method.Finally,this paper selects an incremental distribution network investment project for empirical analysis,and studies the influence of parameter fluctuation on real option value through sensitivity analysis.The results show that the real option method can fully consider the uncertainty of incremental distribution network project investment,explore the potential investment value of the project,and evaluate the value of incremental distribution network project more comprehensively.Through the sensitivity analysis of the model parameters,it is found that the present value of the underlying assets is the sensitive factor of the option value,and investors should pay special attention to the determination of this parameter in the process of project evaluation.Based on the consideration of distributed photovoltaic access,this paper studies the investment decision of incremental distribution network,which has a certain reference value for future research.