Study On Supply-demand Forecasting Model Of Maintaining Funds Of Trunk Road

The trunk road is an infrastructure and plays an irreplaceable role in the national economy and social development,which we know it’s essential attribute is a public service that can provide public goods for the community.Constructing and conserving the trunk road is contribute to the promotion of social and economic development.In order to meet the needs of the development of trunk road maintenance project and response to the impacts of the scale of using the highway maintenance fund and the mode of maintenance management in the 13 th Five-Year Plan Period,it is necessary to carry out research on the maintenance of trunk road in China and analyze the supply and demand situation of main highway maintenance fund,develop realistic funding plans,reasonably allocate the conservation funds,activate the road maintenance operation mechanism so as to improve the efficiency of main road maintenance work.First of all,the connotation of trunk road is defined,the scope and content of the main trunk road maintenance are summarized.In addition to that,this paper gives an overview of the supply of main trunk road maintenance funds,summarizes the factors which influence the demand of maintenance funds of trunk highway and expounds the related methods of forecasting the supply and demand of maintenance funds of main highway.Second,this paper is based on the composition of the supply source of main highway maintenance funds,building a model of forecasting the maintenance fund supply of trunk highway by the method of regression analysis.After analyzing the correlation factors that affect the demand of main trunk road maintenance fund,the demand forecasting model of trunk road maintenance fund is constructed by the method of gray system theory and the accuracy of the demand forecasting model is improved by the BP neural network theory.Third,through a case study of Trunk Road Maintenance in Henan Province,combing with relevant historical data,the supplying and forecasting models of the above-mentioned constructions are validated and solved.On the basis of the above analysis,this paper forecasted the supply and demand of the main trunk road maintenance funds in the next five years in Henan Province.According to the next five years forecasting results of Henan Province,we can find out the problems in the supply and demand balance of trunk road in Henan province.At last,analyzing the above examples,we can combine the situation of Henan Province with the actual situation in other provinces of our country.This paper put forward some policy suggestions to optimize the supply and demand balance of main trunk road maintenance funds from the perspective of increasing supply and ensuring demand.