Research On Trading Mechanism And Risk Assessment Of Cross-regional Electrical Power With Renewable Energy

In recent years,with the deep development of power trading system reformation,the construction of cross-regional power trading mechanism and the expansion of renewable energy consumption,as the focus of reformation,have received more and more attention.In the gradual opening cross-regional power transaction market,generators' market behavior has caused more researchers' concern.All market behavior of power generators is aimed at increasing their revenue.On the one hand,generators can increase their profits through competitive behavior in the market.On the other hand,generators need to rationally allocate their power generation to different markets,such as the spot market and constract markets,based on transaction risk assessment,which is able to reduce the transaction risk and ensure their revenue.This dissertation proposed optimization method for bidding and power combination strategies of renewable energy generators in the deregulated cross-regional power trading market.The main contents are as follows:1)The power side,grid side,load side,policy and market factors affecting renewable energy cross-regional power transaction are analyzed.Then,a cross-regional power transaction structure is built by combining with main factors,and the functions of the cross-regional power trading center and the process of cross-regional power transaction are clarified.Finally,two-part pricing mechanism based generation cost models of thermal power plants,wind power plants and solar power plants are provided based on the study of the characteristics of the costs incurred in the production of electrical energy,which lay the foundation for the study of the cross-regional power transaction cost of power stations.2)To promote renewable energy consumption,green certificate trading mechanism and carbon trading mechanism are introduced into cross-regional power transaction.And the cross-regional transaction cost model of each power plant considering the green certificate and carbon emissions transaction is proposed on the basis of its generation cost model.Besides,for the strategic bidding optimization problem of generators in the spot market,the game behavior between generators is analyzed and the game theory is applied to the optimization research of generators' bidding strategies.In addition,the bidding optimization model based on cooperative game and the profit distribution model based on Shapley value are established for the generators in the power sending area.At last,wind-solar-thermal cross-regional power transaction simulation results show that the benefit of generators is improved when they use cooperative game model to optimize the bidding strategy,which verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model.3)The operational risks,political risks,and trading risks in the cross-regional power transaction market are analyzed,and corresponding risk aversion measures are proposed.Then,consider that generators allocate power generation to the annual contract market,monthly contract market and spot market for cross-regional power transaction to reduce risk,the optimization model of power combination strategy based on expected utility-entropy is established,in which the entropy is used to evaluate the risk caused by the uncertainty of renewable energy output and the fluctuation of electricity price.Finally,wind power plant's one-month power combination strategy simulation results illustrate that the model can not only reflect the decision characteristics of the generator when its preference degree of the market risk changes,but also reduce the trading risk while obtaining generator's expected return level.This dissertation can be regard as a reference for the research on bidding strategy and power combination strategy of renewable energy generators in cross-regional power transaction.