Research On Risk Evaluation Of Prefabricated Housing Projects From The Perspective Of Developers

With the raising of sustainable development strategy in China,the problems of low resources utilization rate and environmental pollution caused by the traditional cast-in-situ housing construction mode can not be ignored.Prefabricated housings breaking the traditional cast-in-place house construction mode,having the advantages of energy saving,pollution reduction,efficiency improvement,cost reduction and so on,in line with the concept of sustainable development,is a new carrier of green building.With the support of national and provincial policies,prefabricated housings have been steadily promoted.Developers are an important channel for the promotion and development of prefabricated housings in China,but there are still few prefabricated housings developed by developers,mainly because of the widespread risks such as immature assembly technology,low public awareness and imperfect technical standards,which seriously restrict the development of prefabricated housings.In view of this,the risk evaluation of prefabricated housing projects from the perspective of developers is particularly necessary.This paper,from the perspective of developers,evaluates the risk of prefabricated housing projects by combining the grey system theory.First,the research object and relevant theoretical methods are expounded.In this paper,prefabricated concrete housings are selected as the research object,and grey system theory and grey clustering of center point mixed probability function are determined as the research theory and method.Secondly,the risk of prefabricated housing projects from the perspective of developers are analyzed.To combine with historical documents and typical cases,the risks of prefabricated housing projects were identified and classified.Furthermore,the risk evaluation Indicators system of prefabricated housing projects are constructed by consulting experts in the research field through questionnaire survey to select risk indicators.Then,using the Analytic Hierarchy Process to determine risk Indicators weight,and grey clustering model of center point mixed probability function was constructed to evaluate the risk of prefabricated housing projects.Finally,combined with a prefabricated housing project in Chengdu,Sichuan province,an empirical analysis of risk evaluation was carried out,to determine the risk level of the project as “high risk”and propose risk countermeasures.This paper introduces the grey system theory into the risk evaluation field of prefabricated housing projects,hoping to provide a new theoretical perspective for the risk evaluation research of prefabricated housing projects,and providing a reference for developers to evaluate the risk of prefabricated housing projects reasonably.