Risk Assessment Of Benefit-Sharing Water Saving Management Contract Based On Uncertain Comprehensive Evaluation

Water Saving Management Contract(WSMC)is an innovative water-saving management mode that makes full use of market-oriented mechanism and shares water-saving benefits.It is in the initial stage of development in China,of which benefit-sharing is one of the main modes of WSMC.Due to the influence of policy,market and economic environment and the characteristics of the project itself,water-saving service enterprises bear greater risks in the process of carrying out benefit-sharing WSMC project.Therefore,scientifically evaluating the risks of benefit-sharing WSMC project is of great significance to water-saving service enterprises.This thesis is mainly based on WSMC theory,project risk assessment theory and uncertainty theory as research tools.The risk assessment of benefit-sharing WSMC project is based on the uncertainty comprehensive evaluation method.The main research work includes the following three aspects.Firstly,the risk evaluation index system of the benefit-sharing WSMC project is constructed.First,according to the characteristics of benefit-sharing WSMC project,the project is divided into four stages,i.e.initial stage,implementation stage,operation stage and end stage.The risks of benefit-sharing WSMC project are identified by using the Flow-Chart Method.Second,according to the attributes of risk sources,the project risks are divided into five types of risks,namely policy,market,financing,operation and benefit.They are taken as the first-level risk evaluation indexes of the project.The first-level risk evaluation indexes is further divided into 27second-level risk evaluation indexes.Third,according to the identified risk indexes,the risk evaluation index system is constructed for benefit-sharing WSMC project.Secondly,a risk evaluation model for the benefit-sharing WSMC project is constructed.The importance of the index and the comment in the evaluation system are depicted as uncertain variables.According to the uncertainty theory,the multi-grade uncertain comprehensive evaluation method,which combines qualitative and quantitative methods,is selected to evaluate the project risks.Through the distribution of uncertain variables and expert voting,the weight of each index and the evaluation matrix of each index are determined.At last,the evaluation result is obtained by seeking the expectation of the uncertain comprehensive evaluationmatrix.Finally,according to the constructed risk evaluation model,the risks of the benefit-sharing WSMC project of Hebei University of Engineering are comprehensively evaluated.The risk level is concluded to be medium,and corresponding suggestions and countermeasures are put forward.Risk research on benefit-sharing WSMC can help water-saving service enterprises,water-using units and other project stakeholders to improve their risk identification and assessment capabilities.What's more,it can promote the smooth implementation of WSMC project.Moreover,it can better achieve water saving goals.This is an optimal allocation of technology and social capital.It is not only a method of technology and financial management,but also conducive to the promotion of aquatic product saving technology and promote the construction of social ecological civilization.