Research On Power Load Forecasting And Grid Planning In Qitaihe Area

Distribution network is an important part of connecting users and main network,and an important link between transmission and users.With the development of economy,there is an increased demand for the power supply capacity of distribution network.As an important part of power planning project,scientific and reasonable planning is an important prerequisite to ensure the safety and reliability of distribution network.With the acceleration of the pace of economic structure transformation,the increase of power load is obviously accelerated,the existing distribution network grid structure is relatively weak,and the problem of insufficient power supply capacity is becoming more and more obvious.Therefore,it is of great significance to plan the power grid in Qitaihe area reasonably and build the high standard distribution network.This paper takes the power grid of Qitaihe area as a planning example,from the perspective of economic and social development and urban planning and construction in Qitaihe area,closely combines the construction of power supply in Qitaihe area,the grid structure of each voltage grade,the scale and operation life of transmission and transformation equipment,and carefully analyzes the characteristics and existing problems of the existing power grid structure.Based on the analysis of historical load growth trend and load characteristics,the forecasting method of"conventional load-point load" is used to predict electricity quantity and load,the forecasting results are verified by elastic coefficient method and maximum load utilization hours method,and the load forecasting results are obtained.According to the principle of dividing the power supply area,the classification of the power supply area in Qitaihe area is determined.With the overall goal of distribution network development and the target of the prospective year planning formulated,the key points of power grid construction of each voltage grade are determined,and the technical principles of power grid planning are formulated.The power grid planning scheme of Qitaihe area which is finally determined guides the construction demand of distribution network in Qitaihe area in the next period,and the planning of Qitaihe power grid.Through the above research,the load of Qitaihe Power Grid will increase rapidly between 2020 and 2025.By 2025,the total social load of Qitaihe will reach 700 MW,and the total social power supply will reach 38.7GWh.According to the economic and social development of Qitaihe and the growth of load and electricity,considering that the old equipment can not meet the demand of load growth,13 substations will be built,rebuilt and expanded.According to the load forecast and planned substation construction and the number of remaining bays of existing substations,the new trunk lines and branch lines of 10kV power grid will be arranged annually,resulting in the number of 10kV distribution lines will reach 189.