Landscape Pattern Evolution,Prediction And Planning Of Daqiao Reservoir In Mianning County

Mianning County Daqiao Reservoir serves as a source of water for the people in the downstream.The water quality and environment of Daqiao Reservoir are of vital significance and impact on the economy and people 's livelihood in the downstream.The natural conditions around the reservoir,especially the forest,will affect the water quality of the reservoir.Have a profound impact on the water environment.The landscape pattern can reflect the composition structure of various patches in the study area,reflect the health level of the regional ecological environment,and also reflect the regional water environment.In this paper,the landscape pattern analysis software Fragstates is used to calculate the landscape pattern indexes of the Daqiao Reservoir on the landscape type and landscape level.At the same time,the transition matrix is used to explore the landscape pattern evolution process and land use conversion in the region from 2000 to 2018,and summarize the region.Ecological health level and landscape pattern development trend;constructing CA-Markov model,based on actual land use data in2008 as the forecast basis,stipulating limiting factors and influencing factors for individual land development to predict the land use status of Daqiao Reservoir in2018;The actual land use data in 2018 is used to check the predicted land use data in2018,and to predict the land use data of Daqiao Reservoir in 2028 when the accuracy of the test is high.Based on the research and prediction of the landscape pattern evolution of Daqiao Reservoir,the planning goals and principles were determined based on the results of landscape pattern evolution and land use prediction,and the future ecological environment construction of Daqiao Reservoir was planned.The research results are as follows:(1)The remote sensing image processing platform ENVI was used to supervise and classify the satellite imagery of Daqiao Reservoir in 2000,2008,and 2018,to obtain the land use type map of the corresponding year,and then input the TIFF format file into the landscape analysis software Fragstates.In the selection,the commonly used landscape pattern index is used to analyze the landscape pattern index of the Daqiao Reservoir from two aspects of landscape type and landscape level,compare the landscape pattern data of the third period,and analyze the change direction,amplitude and trend of each index to obtain the bridge.Analysis results of the evolution of the landscape pattern of the reservoir: The horizontal evolution of landscape types is reflected in quantitative changes.The landscape of the water landscape of the forest land has continued to decrease,but the forest land landscape has always been thedominant landscape element in the overall landscape,and has the largest contribution to the landscape.Grassland,arable land,buildings The landscape of land use and unused land continues to increase.At the landscape level,the landscape pattern dynamics show that the overall aggregation degree shows a decreasing trend,while the number of patches,uniformity,and diversity index show an upward trend,indicating that the fragmentation of the landscape has increased,and the landscape types have a balanced and diversified trend in the landscape space.distributed.(2)CA-Markov model of Daqiao Reservoir is constructed by setting cell information and the influences and limiting factors of the conversion of various categories.Based on the 2008 land use map,the model is used to simulate the 2018 land use data.The accuracy evaluation was performed with the interpretation data in 2018,and the Kappa coefficient was 81.32.The accuracy is high,which proves that the prediction model is accurate.The model is used to predict the land use data in 2028,and the land use forecast results of Daqiao Reservoir in 2028 are obtained to provide planning basis for the ecological planning research of Daqiao Reservoir.(3)Based on the analysis results of the landscape pattern evolution and the prediction of the landscape pattern in the region,and combined with the practical requirement of protecting the source area of the Daqiao Reservoir,study the ecological planning scheme of the Daqiao Reservoir.Combined with predictions,the planning goals were determined to ensure that the water environment and water quality of the reservoir are excellent,optimize the landscape pattern of Daqiao Reservoir,and curb the landscape fragmentation trend in the region;three major principles: the principle of ecosystem integrity;the principle of sustainable development;ecological function and economy The principle of combining functions.The plan is guided by landscape ecology "plaque-corridor-matrix".It plans to optimize the ecological matrix,construct ecological corridors,and construct ecological nodes.