Simulation And Prediction Of Landscape Pattern In Dianchi Lake Basin Based On Analysis Of Evolution And Influencing Factors

Plateau mountainous terrain complex and fragile ecological environment and natural disasters,and dianchi lake basin is a typical plateau mountainous region,compared with the eastern plain lake river,the river ecosystem is more fragile,the impact of land use and landscape pattern change become more prominent and serious,even threaten the regional ecological security.In this paper,the spatial pattern,evolution characteristics and influencing factors of dianchi Basin landscape were analyzed by spatial transfer matrix and landscape dynamic attitude,and the Mc E-ca-markov model was constructed to simulate and predict landscape pattern,then,putting forward corresponding optimization suggestions.The results are as follows:(1)The landscape pattern and evolution characteristics of Dianchi Lake basin are obvious and greatly affected by geographical conditions.Landscape distribution has the characteristics of water direction and circle layer.Different landscape types in Dianchi Basin have great difference in elevation and slope distribution.In the past 20 years,the landscape of construction land and agricultural landscape changed dramatically,and the elevation and slope distribution of different landscape types differed greatly.The landscape of construction land tends to be regular and the rest of the landscape tends to be fragmented.The intensity of human disturbance increased.(2)The influencing factors of landscape pattern evolution of Dianchi Lake basin are population,social and economic development and "Dianchi Lake Classification Protection Scope Delineation Plan" and other policies.The landscape expansion of construction land is also affected by the physical geographical conditions and traffic accessibility of the landscape type to be occupied,that is,population increase,social and economic development and afforestation policies jointly affect the mutual transformation between the landscape of construction land and other types of landscape through physical geography and traffic conditions.(3)According to the analysis of evolution characteristics and influencing factors,the simulation results show that the landscape of construction land will become the dominant landscape in the basin,and the area will increase to 897km2.The landscape of agriculture,grassland and forest land will be occupied by the landscape of construction land.In order to optimize the landscape pattern,some strategies were put forward,such as protecting forestland landscape and water landscape,strengthening cultivated land protection and improving land use efficiency,scientifically guiding urban development,optimizing the internal structure of construction land landscape,constructing ecological corridor and strengthening the connectivity of ecological landscape resources.