| Fujian province is a typical red soil hilly region in South China,which has been suffering from soil erosion seriously because of the large terrain slope,weak soil anti erosion ability,combined with more typhoon and torrential rain,and concentration rainfall.In order to prevent soil and water loss,according to the local natural and geographical conditions and soil erosion situation,after years of research and practice,the government has taken a variety of soil and water conservation measures,such as enclosing,the reconstruction of low-efficiency forest.How to scientifically evaluate the suitability of these soil and water conservation measures is an important condition for the rational allocation.In the evaluation of suitability,the selection of evaluation index and the determination of weight are the difficulties.The different evaluation indexes may led to different evaluation results.The weight of evaluation index is different,which may directly affects the objectivity and scientificity of evaluation results.The subjective weighting methods such as expert scoring method,AHP,mainly relying on expert knowledge and experience to empower,which is more or less with the mankind's subjective.while objective weighting method such as principal component analysis,factor analysis,there are some disputes in factor selection and data standardization,which need to be further improved.To solve the above problems,this paper takes Changting County of Fujian Province as the study area,a fuzzy evidence weight model based on data driven and expert knowledge is introduced,through the selection of natural suitability and social suitability two aspects including seven factors,according to historical measures extracted from enclosing measures and ecological forest as sample points,calculate the weight of evidence,screening appropriate evidence factors,calculate the final comprehensive factors of posterior probability,get the suitability classification map,combined with the latest 2014-2015 distribution control measures for comparative analysis.Finally,get the suitability classification map of the soil and water conservation measures,which can provide the basis for soil and water conservation measures.The specific research contents and results are as follows:(1)collect the relevant data of the suitability evaluation of soil and water conservation,main include soil erosion intensity and land use types,vegetation coverage,slope,distance to the nearest road,to the nearest residential distance,and a brief introduction of each layer and pretreatment method.(2)build the fuzzy weight of evidence model for the suitability evaluation of soil and water conservation measures,and analyze the evaluation process and content of fuzzy weight of evidence model.(3)complete natural ecological restoration area division by fuzzy weight of evidence model.On the basis of the sample points extracted from the 2013 measures,the weights of relevant evidence are calculated,and finally,the suitability classification chart is obtained.The results showed that 72.92%of the points were above the moderate level,and the actual situation was higher.(4)fulfil the suitability evaluation of soil and water conservation measures of artificial auxiliary treatment area.Base on years of distribution of control measures extract sample points,calculating the weight of evidence,screening relevant evidence layers,computing the fuzzy weights of evidence and posterior probability,finally obtain the suitability classification map of each control measures,and from the overlay analysis with the latest treatment measures,it shows over 70%points in the moderate suitability level and above,which tally closely with the actual distribution.It can be concluded that the fuzzy weight of evidence model,as a statistical model which can be driven by the data and can be combined with the expert experience knowledge,can objectively and effectively evaluate the suitability of soil and water conservation measures. |
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