Research On Coupling And Coordination Of Agricultural Modernization And New Urbanization In Shandong Province

In the requirements of the overall objectives of the 13 th Five-Year Plan,it is clearly pointed out that by 2020,the urbanization rate of the population will accelerate,the level of agricultural modernization will develop rapidly,and the people's living standards and quality will be significantly improved.Among them,the promotion of agricultural modernization should be based on the promotion of agricultural technology and equipment and the level of agricultural informatization.The new type of urbanization emphasizes accelerating the urbanization of agricultural transfer population,and developing cities and towns into harmonious and beautiful ecological livable cities.The coordinated development of the two is aimed at promoting the integration of urban and rural areas and achieving sound and rapid economic development.The research on the coordinated development of Shandong Province's two modernizations can provide reference for future development direction selection,and provide empirical analysis for the third land survey planning to put forward the construction of land informatization evaluation model and data evaluation and analysis platform.Based on the transformation of a series of theories such as traditional agricultural theory and synergetic theory,this paper takes Shandong Province as the research area,draws lessons from the scientific research achievements of experts and scholars at home and abroad,constructs an evaluation index system with 20 indicators,uses the entropy weight method to determine the weight of indicators,and then uses the comprehensive index model and the coupling coordination degree model to study the agricultural modernization and new towns in Shandong Province during 2007-2016.The coupling coordination degree is analyzed in time and space.The grey correlation degree is used to analyze the correlation degree of the two systems.Finally,the RBF neural network model is used to predict the coordination degree of Shandong Province in the next five years since 2016.(1)The analysis of the development level of agricultural modernization and new urbanization in Shandong Province shows that the development level of both industrialization and urbanization in Shandong Province is on the rise,with the level of agricultural modernization rising from 0.231 to 0.878 and the level of new urbanization rising from 0.048 to 0.970 in the past ten years.And the level of agricultural modernization in 2007-2013 is higher than that of new-type urbanization,and the level of new-type urbanization surpasses agricultural modernization in 2014-2016.In addition,from the perspective of the two systems,the level of rural sustainable development has the greatest impact on the development of agricultural modernization,rural social development is the most unstable,W-shaped development;population urbanization has the highest growth rate in ten years,and has gradually become the greatest impact factor of the development of new urbanization.(2)From the perspective of time differentiation,the coupling degree between agricultural modernization and new urbanization in Shandong Province is between 0.378 and0.498 in 2007-2016,which is in the stage of moderate coupling.The coordination degree can be divided into three main stages.In 2007-2009,the coordination degree between agricultural modernization and new urbanization is in the embryonic stage;in 2010-2012,it is in the initial stage;and in 2013-2016,it is in the stable stage.From the perspective of spatial differences,the coupling degree of 17 cities in Shandong Province is not obvious,and is in the stage of moderate coupling;the coordination degree of each city has obvious differences,but its development trend basically shows an upward trend.Generally speaking,the development trend of the two modernizations is from coastal to inland,and from Jinan and Qingdao to the surrounding areas.(3)The correlation analysis between agricultural modernization and new urbanization shows that the grey correlation degree between agricultural modernization index and new urbanization system is between 0.52 and 0.83,and the correlation degree between new urbanization index and agricultural modernization system is between 0.56 and 0.75,which indicates that the system index has a high correlation with another system and the index selection is reasonable.According to the correlation value,the proportion of expenditure on agriculture,forestry and water affairs,the proportion of tertiary industry and the area of urban construction land have great influence on the development of the system.(4)Prediction and analysis of the coupling coordination degree of agricultural modernization and new urbanization in Shandong Province shows that the coupling coordination degree will increase from 0.683 to 0.781 in the next five years,and the coordination degree level will change from stable stage to primary stage to intermediate level.While maintaining the construction of new towns,Shandong Province should steadily upgrade the level of agricultural modernization and make the two modernizations more coordinated.